MLS Predictor

MLS Predictor as of May 18

Brought to you by Python (the programming language)!

How it works: A computer program reads in the completed results and simulates the rest of the season many times, using a fairly simple match engine for scores and basing results on the ELO ratings of the two teams. The ELO ratings are guessed at the start of the season, using several sources of pre-season predictions, but will fluctuate based on results in the actual games played, eventually making the initial ELO predictions almost irrelevant. In each sim the program simulates the MLS playoffs and counts how many times each team finishes in/out of the playoffs, in each position, and making a strong playoff run (semi-finals or better). This file will be updated as MLS results come in, so check back often!

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: Saturday:MTL 0-2 CHI, ORL 1-1 ATL, N.E 2-1 MIN, NYR 1-1 NYF, CLT 3-1 TOR, DCU 1-1 STL, PHI 1-1 CLB, HOU 1-0 VCR, ATX 1-2 SKC, SEA 0-2 LAG, RSL 2-1 COL, S.J 2-3 DAL, S.D 3-3 CIN. Sunday: MIA 2-0 POR, NSH 3-2 LAF.

Summary: Wild weekend mostly missed as I worked through it, but the general effect is that it is now the Eastern race between NSH and MIA at the top of the league, with VCR, SEA, and S.J all dropping back after losses in the West. SKC has rebounded off the bottom with two wins like a lacrosse ball dropped from the ceiling, leaving PHI and ATL the new bottom faves. DAL, HOU and RSL had a good weekend putting them into the mix with SEA and S.J. in the West's top tier, with VCR's loss to HOU dropping them back but leaving them on top of the West.

With about 40% of the games in, the playoff race in both divisions is beginning to settle. In the West, the gap between LAG in 9th (61.70% chance to be in) and S.D in 10th (39.67%) is a clear wedge, and in the East, DCU (57.78%) and ORL (47.55%) are on the bubble for the final spot but well ahead of the next team down (CLB: 33.96%). Caps may be shaken by the questionable red card to their GK that eventually cost them in HOU, but losses from the main contenders combined with wins from what used to be the second tier has left the Caps the clear early favourite for the division title. The East frontrunner is NSH but MIA is slowly reeling them in and finally has a home win thanks to road-weary Portland.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 9W 3D 1L +19GD 1712(2)
Next: v NYF (05/23) , v ATL (07/17) , v MTL (07/22)

NSH

2.31

99.91%

35.24%

5.90%

3.95%

8.98%

51.70%

28.57%

11.43%

4.38%

1.92%

1.07%

0.49%

0.23%

0.11%

0.00%

(Inter Miami) 8W 4D 2L +9 GD 1733(1)
Next: v PHI (05/24) , v CHI (07/22) , @ MTL (07/25)

MIA

2.00

99.89%

21.21%

6.37%

4.46%

8.77%

35.77%

35.35%

16.80%

6.58%

2.84%

1.31%

0.71%

0.36%

0.17%

0.00%

(New England Revolution) 8W 1D 4L +5 GD 1550(9)
Next: @ CLT (05/23) , v TOR (07/22) , v ATL (07/25)

N.E

1.92

96.01%

3.94%

3.73%

4.21%

9.27%

7.14%

16.48%

24.35%

16.38%

10.95%

7.84%

5.64%

4.19%

3.05%

0.01%

(Chicago Fire) 7W 2D 4L +10GD 1520(11)
Next: v TOR (05/23) , v VCR (07/16) , @ MIA (07/22)

CHI

1.77

91.76%

1.64%

3.80%

4.98%

9.77%

3.54%

9.98%

17.26%

17.67%

13.49%

10.36%

8.35%

6.34%

4.77%

0.02%

(New York City FC) 5W 4D 5L +5 GD 1469(17)
Next: @ NSH (05/23) , @ CLB (07/22) , v CHI (07/25)

NYF

1.36

73.35%

0.10%

3.82%

5.03%

8.83%

0.51%

2.16%

6.13%

9.95%

11.22%

11.51%

11.76%

10.85%

9.26%

0.34%

(New York Red Bulls) 5W 4D 5L -8 GD 1434(19)
Next: @ SKC (05/23) , @ PHI (07/22) , v CLT (07/25)

NYR

1.36

68.89%

0.11%

3.01%

4.35%

8.09%

0.40%

1.85%

5.02%

8.53%

10.06%

10.98%

11.14%

10.84%

10.05%

0.63%

(Charlotte FC) 5W 3D 6L +0 GD 1428(22)
Next: v N.E (05/23) , v ATL (07/22) , @ NYR (07/25)

CLT

1.29

65.58%

0.06%

2.87%

4.02%

7.78%

0.25%

1.55%

4.93%

8.18%

10.02%

10.36%

10.44%

10.23%

9.62%

0.80%

(DC United) 4W 5D 5L -4 GD 1407(23)
Next: v MTL (05/23) , @ HOU (07/22) , v TOR (07/25)

DCU

1.21

57.78%

0.05%

2.35%

3.89%

7.19%

0.14%

0.81%

2.90%

5.96%

8.54%

9.43%

9.78%

9.83%

10.38%

1.32%

(FC Cincinnati) 4W 5D 5L -5 GD 1505(13)
Next: v ORL (05/23) , v VCR (07/22) , @ CLB (07/25)

CIN

1.21

72.26%

0.10%

4.41%

5.64%

9.44%

0.36%

1.96%

5.88%

10.25%

12.29%

11.80%

10.84%

10.13%

8.75%

0.68%

(Orlando City) 4W 2D 8L -17GD 1429(21)
Next: @ CIN (05/23) , @ S.J (07/22) , v NSH (07/25)

ORL

1.00

47.55%

0.01%

2.78%

3.84%

6.22%

0.04%

0.50%

2.26%

4.34%

6.16%

7.31%

8.28%

8.81%

9.85%

3.37%

(Toronto FC) 3W 5D 5L -6 GD 1337(28)
Next: @ CHI (05/23) , @ MTL (07/16) , @ N.E (07/22)

TOR

1.08

29.51%

0.00%

1.66%

2.01%

3.66%

0.05%

0.22%

0.82%

1.96%

2.94%

4.16%

5.02%

6.57%

7.77%

7.80%

(CF Montréal) 4W 1D 8L -9 GD 1342(27)
Next: @ DCU (05/23) , v TOR (07/16) , @ NSH (07/22)

MTL

1.00

31.25%

0.00%

1.65%

2.40%

3.79%

0.04%

0.31%

0.89%

1.94%

3.18%

4.57%

5.74%

6.82%

7.77%

7.52%

(Columbus Crew) 3W 4D 7L -4 GD 1372(26)
Next: v ATL (05/24) , v NYF (07/22) , v CIN (07/25)

CLB

0.93

33.96%

0.00%

1.74%

2.52%

4.19%

0.04%

0.16%

0.84%

2.35%

3.64%

5.00%

6.23%

7.20%

8.50%

5.72%

(Atlanta United FC) 3W 2D 8L -7 GD 1337(29)
Next: @ CLB (05/24) , @ NSH (07/17) , @ CLT (07/22)

ATL

0.85

23.16%

0.00%

1.36%

1.78%

2.92%

0.01%

0.09%

0.43%

1.25%

2.20%

3.24%

4.04%

5.27%

6.62%

12.71%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 4D 9L -10GD 1327(30)
Next: @ MIA (05/24) , v NYR (07/22) , v SEA (07/25)

PHI

0.50

9.12%

0.00%

0.62%

0.83%

1.11%

0.00%

0.07%

0.28%

0.54%

1.05%

1.54%

2.33%

3.30%

33.33%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 9W 2D 2L +20GD 1676(3)
Next: @ S.D (05/23) , @ CHI (07/16) , @ CIN (07/22)

VCR

2.23

98.16%

19.00%

5.55%

3.42%

8.63%

41.26%

19.97%

13.04%

8.33%

5.55%

4.21%

2.65%

1.88%

1.25%

0.00%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 9W 2D 3L +17GD 1583(5)
Next: @ POR (05/23) , v ORL (07/22) , v LAG (07/25)

S.J

2.07

94.07%

6.24%

4.33%

3.46%

9.12%

16.22%

18.85%

15.40%

11.78%

9.87%

7.69%

5.92%

4.81%

3.54%

0.00%

(Real Salt Lake) 8W 1D 4L +7 GD 1573(8)
Next: @ MIN (05/23) , @ LAF (07/22) , @ POR (07/25)

RSL

1.92

88.37%

3.71%

4.48%

3.72%

9.37%

11.04%

13.54%

12.88%

12.16%

10.52%

8.93%

7.58%

6.42%

5.30%

0.01%

(Seattle Sounders) 7W 3D 2L +7 GD 1599(4)
Next: @ LAF (05/24) , v POR (07/16) , @ ATX (07/22)

SEA

2.00

92.46%

5.78%

4.22%

3.57%

9.10%

16.44%

16.39%

14.81%

12.24%

9.40%

7.76%

6.33%

5.07%

4.03%

0.00%

(FC Dallas) 6W 4D 4L +7 GD 1582(6)
Next: @ COL (05/23) , @ POR (07/22) , @ S.D (07/25)

DAL

1.57

81.47%

0.78%

5.27%

4.46%

9.90%

3.79%

7.57%

10.17%

11.40%

11.98%

10.97%

9.50%

8.78%

7.30%

0.02%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 7W 0D 6L -4 GD 1575(7)
Next: @ LAG (05/23) , v DCU (07/22) , v ATX (07/25)

HOU

1.62

79.71%

1.22%

4.95%

4.26%

9.49%

5.12%

8.69%

10.13%

10.65%

10.47%

10.25%

9.50%

7.80%

7.10%

0.01%

(Los Angeles FC) 6W 3D 5L +6 GD 1489(14)
Next: v SEA (05/24) , @ LAG (07/17) , v RSL (07/22)

LAF

1.50

61.06%

0.22%

3.67%

3.37%

7.27%

1.58%

3.27%

4.64%

6.34%

7.64%

8.56%

9.45%

9.82%

9.76%

0.10%

(Minnesota United FC) 6W 3D 5L -4 GD 1506(12)
Next: v RSL (05/23) , @ SKC (07/22) , v VCR (07/25)

MIN

1.50

64.91%

0.31%

3.83%

3.68%

7.23%

1.92%

4.11%

5.81%

7.36%

8.24%

9.00%

9.43%

9.75%

9.29%

0.11%

(LA Galaxy) 5W 4D 5L +0 GD 1530(10)
Next: v HOU (05/23) , v LAF (07/17) , v STL (07/22)

LAG

1.36

61.70%

0.20%

4.29%

3.97%

7.67%

1.40%

3.38%

4.99%

6.75%

8.14%

8.46%

9.51%

9.67%

9.40%

0.22%

(San Diego FC) 4W 5D 5L +5 GD 1480(15)
Next: v VCR (05/23) , @ COL (07/22) , v DAL (07/25)

S.D

1.21

39.67%

0.04%

3.08%

2.67%

5.10%

0.29%

1.05%

1.84%

2.92%

4.22%

5.55%

6.96%

7.97%

8.86%

1.17%

(Colorado Rapids) 5W 1D 8L +2 GD 1431(20)
Next: v DAL (05/23) , v S.D (07/22) , @ STL (07/25)

COL

1.14

36.10%

0.02%

2.32%

2.34%

4.35%

0.28%

1.00%

1.92%

2.67%

3.75%

4.89%

6.17%

7.15%

8.27%

1.47%

(Portland Timbers) 4W 2D 7L -4 GD 1465(18)
Next: v S.J (05/23) , @ SEA (07/16) , v DAL (07/22)

POR

1.08

38.40%

0.03%

2.89%

2.51%

4.65%

0.35%

1.07%

2.00%

3.30%

4.21%

5.35%

6.36%

7.33%

8.43%

2.02%

(Austin FC) 3W 5D 6L -9 GD 1380(25)
Next: @ STL (05/23) , v SEA (07/22) , @ HOU (07/25)

ATX

1.00

13.98%

0.01%

1.24%

1.00%

1.70%

0.03%

0.11%

0.32%

0.59%

1.04%

1.64%

2.32%

3.29%

4.64%

7.94%

(St. Louis City SC) 3W 4D 6L -7 GD 1473(16)
Next: v ATX (05/23) , v SKC (07/16) , @ LAG (07/22)

STL

1.00

34.36%

0.01%

2.62%

2.45%

4.51%

0.25%

0.83%

1.58%

2.69%

3.58%

4.78%

5.76%

6.78%

8.12%

2.66%

(Sporting Kansas City) 3W 2D 8L -21GD 1391(24)
Next: v NYR (05/23) , @ STL (07/16) , v MIN (07/22)

SKC

0.85

15.56%

0.00%

1.17%

1.21%

1.92%

0.04%

0.17%

0.46%

0.82%

1.39%

1.94%

2.58%

3.47%

4.70%

10.03%

Number of sims: 30000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 76.02
Wooden Spoon average points: 21.44
East winner average points: 74.12
West winner average points: 71.62
East 4th place average points: 55.70
West 4th place average points: 58.48
East average points to make playoffs: 41.12
West average points to make playoffs: 45.83


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  MIA E   1733 2.00  1480.4    1421.4
 2  NSH E   1712 2.31  1463.4    1442.1
 3  VCR   W 1676 2.23  1476.3    1500.2
 4  SEA   W 1599 2.00  1515.1    1489.4
 5  S.J   W 1583 2.07  1481.2    1510.6
 6  DAL   W 1582 1.57  1498.1    1501.0
 7  HOU   W 1575 1.62  1495.6    1510.1
 8  RSL   W 1573 1.92  1489.2    1514.6
 9  N.E E   1550 1.92  1460.5    1474.8
10  LAG   W 1530 1.36  1485.8    1505.2
11  CHI E   1520 1.77  1427.3    1492.6
12  MIN   W 1506 1.50  1525.1    1500.4
13  CIN E   1505 1.21  1473.2    1479.3
14  LAF   W 1489 1.50  1528.4    1513.8
15  S.D   W 1480 1.21  1488.4    1522.0
16  STL   W 1473 1.00  1522.0    1493.4
17  NYF E   1469 1.36  1451.0    1486.0
18  POR   W 1465 1.08  1544.1    1485.5
19  NYR E   1434 1.36  1465.8    1471.4
20  COL   W 1431 1.14  1556.6    1479.4
21  ORL E   1429 1.00  1478.5    1472.5
22  CLT E   1428 1.29  1490.0    1454.5
23  DCU E   1407 1.21  1499.4    1458.6
24  SKC   W 1391 0.85  1524.9    1503.0
25  ATX   W 1380 1.00  1500.8    1532.0
26  CLB E   1372 0.93  1466.7    1471.5
27  MTL E   1342 1.00  1461.3    1490.5
28  TOR E   1337 1.08  1445.6    1498.1
29  ATL E   1337 0.85  1452.9    1490.0
30  PHI E   1327 0.50  1461.8    1484.5

MLS Predictor as of May 13

Latest results added: CLT 1-0 NYF, MTL 2-2 POR, DCU 1-3 CHI, CIN 3-5 MIA, N.E 0-3 NSH, NYR 3-2 CLB, ORL 4-3 PHI, DAL 2-3 VCR, MIN 0-1 COL, SKC 3-1 LAG, RSL 3-0 HOU, S.D 5-0 ATX, SEA 3-2 S.J.

Summary: Two amazing mid-week results affect both ends of the ELO ratings: SKC pulls off a rare home win against LAG and moves up enough to nip 29th place from idle ATL, and MIN loses at home to COL, leaving a group of five at the top: VCR, MIA, NSH, SEA, and S.J. It's PHI, SKC and ATL at the bottom and the remaining 22 teams are in a massive peloton in the middle. Standings-wise, VCR has taken over the top of the West (on goal difference officially, but they also have a game in hand on S.J) and the league lead with their win in DAL, combined with Seattle's late winner at home to S.J — but face a continuing run of road games in the next while as their revenue-less stadium prepares for the World Cup. SEA is five back of S.J with two games in hand but is rising quickly. NSH solidified their hold on the East (two points and a game in hand on MIA) by handing N.E their first home loss of the season. SKC's win over the Galaxy also created a new favourite for last overall: 2025 Supporters' Shield winner Philadelphia!

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 8W 3D 1L +18GD 1698(3)
Next: v LAF (05/17) , v NYF (05/23) , v ATL (07/17)

NSH

2.25

99.70%

22.19%

5.54%

4.32%

8.77%

49.25%

27.84%

11.51%

5.21%

2.82%

1.40%

0.86%

0.48%

0.32%

0.00%

(Inter Miami) 7W 4D 2L +7 GD 1721(2)
Next: v POR (05/17) , v PHI (05/24) , v CHI (07/22)

MIA

1.92

99.68%

13.30%

5.83%

4.56%

9.07%

37.89%

33.48%

14.77%

6.43%

3.29%

1.83%

1.06%

0.57%

0.36%

0.00%

(New England Revolution) 7W 1D 4L +4 GD 1515(10)
Next: v MIN (05/16) , @ CLT (05/23) , v TOR (07/22)

N.E

1.83

90.63%

1.88%

3.41%

4.49%

9.00%

6.32%

13.94%

19.70%

13.96%

10.95%

8.65%

6.91%

5.66%

4.54%

0.03%

(Chicago Fire) 6W 2D 4L +8 GD 1474(15)
Next: @ MTL (05/16) , v TOR (05/23) , v VCR (07/16)

CHI

1.67

81.82%

0.55%

3.33%

4.74%

8.89%

2.43%

7.31%

11.87%

13.08%

11.66%

10.22%

9.62%

8.50%

7.12%

0.11%

(New York City FC) 5W 3D 5L +5 GD 1463(17)
Next: @ NYR (05/16) , @ NSH (05/23) , @ CLB (07/22)

NYF

1.38

71.46%

0.12%

3.37%

4.77%

8.32%

0.98%

3.63%

7.97%

10.04%

10.30%

10.20%

9.93%

9.63%

8.78%

0.35%

(New York Red Bulls) 5W 3D 5L -8 GD 1440(22)
Next: v NYF (05/16) , @ SKC (05/23) , @ PHI (07/22)

NYR

1.38

70.92%

0.12%

2.95%

4.43%

8.33%

1.00%

3.71%

7.39%

9.45%

10.50%

10.26%

9.96%

9.60%

9.04%

0.66%

(DC United) 4W 4D 5L -4 GD 1410(23)
Next: v STL (05/16) , v MTL (05/23) , @ HOU (07/22)

DCU

1.23

58.23%

0.03%

2.59%

3.68%

6.91%

0.34%

1.68%

4.45%

7.31%

8.07%

9.00%

9.22%

9.04%

9.13%

1.26%

(FC Cincinnati) 4W 4D 5L -5 GD 1498(12)
Next: @ S.D (05/16) , v ORL (05/23) , v VCR (07/22)

CIN

1.23

69.12%

0.15%

4.28%

5.19%

8.91%

0.80%

2.99%

6.90%

9.60%

10.51%

10.12%

9.22%

8.47%

0.69%

(Charlotte FC) 4W 3D 6L -2 GD 1396(24)
Next: v TOR (05/16) , v N.E (05/23) , v ATL (07/22)

CLT

1.15

53.54%

0.01%

2.13%

3.48%

6.66%

0.22%

1.48%

4.12%

5.98%

7.41%

7.74%

8.41%

8.75%

9.43%

2.00%

(Toronto FC) 3W 5D 4L -4 GD 1365(27)
Next: @ CLT (05/16) , @ CHI (05/23) , @ MTL (07/16)

TOR

1.17

39.07%

0.01%

1.94%

3.00%

4.58%

0.14%

0.84%

2.19%

3.57%

4.69%

5.86%

6.48%

7.34%

7.96%

4.49%

(CF Montréal) 4W 1D 7L -7 GD 1395(25)
Next: v CHI (05/16) , @ DCU (05/23) , v TOR (07/16)

MTL

1.08

45.03%

0.04%

2.34%

3.33%

5.53%

0.27%

1.09%

2.91%

4.51%

5.76%

6.73%

7.17%

8.12%

8.49%

3.57%

(Orlando City) 4W 1D 8L -17GD 1446(21)
Next: v ATL (05/16) , @ CIN (05/23) , @ S.J (07/22)

ORL

1.00

53.69%

0.01%

3.09%

4.04%

6.87%

0.17%

1.34%

3.86%

6.25%

7.21%

8.25%

8.66%

8.85%

9.10%

2.51%

(Columbus Crew) 3W 3D 7L -4 GD 1367(26)
Next: @ PHI (05/16) , v ATL (05/24) , v NYF (07/22)

CLB

0.92

34.84%

0.01%

1.86%

2.53%

4.36%

0.12%

0.48%

1.50%

2.72%

4.02%

5.05%

5.93%

6.99%

8.02%

6.07%

(Atlanta United FC) 3W 1D 8L -7 GD 1320(30)
Next: @ ORL (05/16) , @ CLB (05/24) , @ NSH (07/17)

ATL

0.83

21.19%

0.00%

1.16%

1.73%

2.41%

0.05%

0.16%

0.70%

1.40%

2.01%

2.95%

3.76%

4.52%

5.64%

14.01%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 3D 9L -10GD 1333(28)
Next: v CLB (05/16) , @ MIA (05/24) , v NYR (07/22)

PHI

0.46

11.06%

0.00%

0.76%

1.15%

1.37%

0.01%

0.02%

0.19%

0.49%

0.80%

1.34%

1.91%

2.73%

3.58%

27.94%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 9W 2D 1L +21GD 1728(1)
Next: @ HOU (05/16) , @ S.D (05/23) , @ CHI (07/16)

VCR

2.42

99.24%

29.19%

6.24%

3.29%

8.83%

43.62%

23.13%

14.52%

7.67%

4.22%

2.69%

1.74%

0.94%

0.71%

0.00%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 9W 2D 2L +18GD 1655(5)
Next: v DAL (05/16) , @ POR (05/23) , v ORL (07/22)

S.J

2.23

97.90%

13.80%

4.67%

3.25%

8.78%

21.52%

26.55%

19.13%

11.21%

7.12%

4.94%

3.41%

2.38%

1.64%

0.00%

(Seattle Sounders) 7W 3D 1L +9 GD 1687(4)
Next: v LAG (05/16) , @ LAF (05/24) , v POR (07/16)

SEA

2.18

97.45%

14.75%

5.16%

3.33%

8.73%

24.02%

23.44%

19.58%

11.65%

7.08%

4.60%

3.11%

2.38%

1.59%

0.00%

(Real Salt Lake) 7W 1D 4L +6 GD 1552(6)
Next: v COL (05/16) , @ MIN (05/23) , @ LAF (07/22)

RSL

1.83

82.56%

1.96%

4.16%

3.84%

9.20%

4.44%

8.21%

11.56%

13.22%

12.01%

10.12%

8.95%

7.48%

6.58%

0.02%

(Los Angeles FC) 6W 3D 4L +7 GD 1502(11)
Next: @ NSH (05/17) , v SEA (05/24) , @ LAG (07/17)

LAF

1.62

67.14%

0.36%

3.95%

3.61%

8.22%

1.11%

3.05%

5.57%

7.87%

9.65%

10.03%

9.91%

10.22%

9.74%

0.09%

(Minnesota United FC) 6W 3D 4L -3 GD 1537(7)
Next: @ N.E (05/16) , v RSL (05/23) , @ SKC (07/22)

MIN

1.62

76.28%

0.56%

4.27%

3.84%

8.72%

1.87%

4.99%

7.94%

11.45%

11.17%

10.99%

10.24%

9.17%

8.45%

0.04%

(FC Dallas) 5W 4D 4L +6 GD 1517(8)
Next: @ S.J (05/16) , @ COL (05/23) , @ POR (07/22)

DAL

1.46

63.41%

0.19%

4.38%

3.73%

8.04%

0.73%

2.30%

4.72%

7.63%

9.35%

9.66%

9.88%

9.76%

9.38%

0.22%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 6W 0D 6L -5 GD 1516(9)
Next: v VCR (05/16) , @ LAG (05/23) , v DCU (07/22)

HOU

1.50

66.57%

0.49%

4.13%

3.86%

8.19%

1.46%

3.54%

5.85%

8.36%

9.79%

10.23%

9.57%

9.11%

8.66%

0.26%

(Colorado Rapids) 5W 1D 7L +3 GD 1450(19)
Next: @ RSL (05/16) , v DAL (05/23) , v S.D (07/22)

COL

1.23

44.24%

0.08%

2.90%

2.62%

5.29%

0.26%

1.00%

2.28%

4.25%

5.64%

6.51%

7.57%

8.17%

8.57%

1.07%

(San Diego FC) 4W 4D 5L +5 GD 1487(13)
Next: v CIN (05/16) , v VCR (05/23) , @ COL (07/22)

S.D

1.23

44.75%

0.04%

3.46%

2.80%

5.76%

0.25%

0.91%

2.02%

3.90%

5.49%

6.49%

7.92%

8.66%

9.11%

1.16%

(LA Galaxy) 4W 4D 5L -2 GD 1450(20)
Next: @ SEA (05/16) , v HOU (05/23) , v LAF (07/17)

LAG

1.23

38.05%

0.05%

2.72%

2.56%

4.81%

0.19%

0.80%

1.74%

3.02%

4.28%

5.68%

6.77%

7.49%

8.09%

1.31%

(Portland Timbers) 4W 2D 6L -2 GD 1476(14)
Next: @ MIA (05/17) , v S.J (05/23) , @ SEA (07/16)

POR

1.17

45.35%

0.06%

3.32%

2.85%

5.70%

0.27%

1.02%

2.35%

4.11%

5.67%

6.89%

7.63%

8.42%

8.99%

1.52%

(Austin FC) 3W 5D 5L -8 GD 1451(18)
Next: v SKC (05/16) , @ STL (05/23) , v SEA (07/22)

ATX

1.08

30.61%

0.02%

2.48%

2.09%

3.88%

0.10%

0.38%

1.00%

1.79%

3.26%

4.33%

5.38%

6.59%

7.78%

3.02%

(St. Louis City SC) 3W 3D 6L -7 GD 1470(16)
Next: @ DCU (05/16) , v ATX (05/23) , v SKC (07/16)

STL

1.00

38.35%

0.04%

2.85%

2.41%

4.89%

0.17%

0.65%

1.65%

3.58%

4.65%

5.83%

6.53%

7.29%

8.01%

2.71%

(Sporting Kansas City) 2W 2D 8L -22GD 1327(29)
Next: @ ATX (05/16) , v NYR (05/23) , @ STL (07/16)

SKC

0.67

8.10%

0.00%

0.76%

0.48%

0.97%

0.00%

0.02%

0.09%

0.30%

0.61%

1.02%

1.39%

1.95%

2.72%

24.90%

Number of sims: 30000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.12
Wooden Spoon average points: 20.91
East winner average points: 72.81
West winner average points: 74.95
East 4th place average points: 55.00
West 4th place average points: 59.23
East average points to make playoffs: 41.47
West average points to make playoffs: 45.36


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  VCR   W 1728 2.42  1460.4    1510.7
 2  MIA E   1721 1.92  1495.0    1415.5
 3  NSH E   1698 2.25  1452.3    1447.7
 4  SEA   W 1687 2.18  1521.5    1485.0
 5  S.J   W 1655 2.23  1500.8    1497.6
 6  RSL   W 1552 1.83  1497.3    1515.3
 7  MIN   W 1537 1.62  1527.8    1500.9
 8  DAL   W 1517 1.46  1487.7    1519.6
 9  HOU   W 1516 1.50  1499.5    1514.6
10  N.E E   1515 1.83  1462.2    1469.0
11  LAF   W 1502 1.62  1508.7    1532.0
12  CIN E   1498 1.23  1462.0    1490.1
13  S.D   W 1487 1.23  1502.8    1520.5
14  POR   W 1476 1.17  1519.8    1504.2
15  CHI E   1474 1.67  1417.7    1495.8
16  STL   W 1470 1.00  1542.6    1488.6
17  NYF E   1463 1.38  1443.0    1483.3
18  ATX   W 1451 1.08  1515.2    1520.6
19  COL   W 1450 1.23  1542.9    1497.0
20  LAG   W 1450 1.23  1462.6    1531.1
21  ORL E   1446 1.00  1496.7    1456.4
22  NYR E   1440 1.38  1469.1    1461.7
23  DCU E   1410 1.23  1498.9    1455.3
24  CLT E   1396 1.15  1503.5    1439.3
25  MTL E   1395 1.08  1461.6    1483.3
26  CLB E   1367 0.92  1457.4    1464.9
27  TOR E   1365 1.17  1448.1    1493.0
28  PHI E   1333 0.46  1478.1    1474.4
29  SKC   W 1327 0.67  1535.9    1507.1
30  ATL E   1320 0.83  1442.6    1487.7

MLS Predictor as of May 9 (3 matches still to be played tomorrow.)

Latest results added: TOR 2-4 MIA, CHI 1-3 NYR, MTL 2-0 ORL, N.E 2-1 PHI, CLT 2-2 CIN, ATL 1-2 LAG, DAL 3-1 RSL, NSH 2-2 DCU, COL 0-1 STL, SEA 1-1 S.D, S.J 1-1 VCR, POR 6-0 SKC. Sunday: NYF 3-0 CLB, MIN 2-2 ATX, LAF 1-4 HOU.

Summary: Miami's unsurprising win in Toronto gets them back to third, almost past Vancouver into second, while dropping TFC a place to 24th. Red Bulls had sunk to 29th with one win in their last six but rebounded with the win in CHI to rise to 23rd while CHI went down ten from 12th to 22nd. MTL left it late but scored twice in the final minutes at home against ORL, and moved up five places to 24th, while Orlando, up to the middle of the table after last week's comeback win in Miami, dropped back to 20th.

Not much movement in the three 4:30 Pacific games, although the final results took some time to develop in a few of them. Dallas's home win against RSL was enough for Dallas to grab RSL's 9th spot and knock RSL down to 12th. STL winning in COL moved them up seven places from last week, dropping the Rapids into the bottom six. NSH dropped a few spots after only being able to get a draw at home against DCU, who are now up in the top half.

Portland crushed SKC to get to 15th in the ELO rankings, while the SEA - S.D draw left both teams about where they were last week. The mid-second half tying goal for VCR in S.J left S.J atop the league standings but put Vancouver on top of the ELO ratings, since the ELO formula's expectation for the match was probably to favour S.J slightly as the home team, so a draw would benefit VCR, just enough, as it turns out, to move the Caps onto the top of the rankings list.

NYF and HOU are the big Sunday winners, beating CLB and LAFC by three goals. The LAFC home loss actually drops them down a bit past prising HOU to tenth!

A bug in the program to produce these numbers has been fixed resulting in much lower playoff making odds for the lower-ranked teams. This is based on the strength of a team's remaining schedule and sometimes on games in hand, and will not necessarily align with the standings; for example, the system thinks Columbus and Orlando, currently 12th and 14th in the East, has a good chance to make it to the top 9 by the end of the season, because they've played their harder games already. SKC has established itself as a front-runner for last place overall (43%!) and has only a 3% chance of getting to ninth and a playoff spot. Eastern teams now occupy nine of the lowest eleven spots in the ELO rankings and three of the top ten. Check out the new graphic showing each team's progression in the ELO rankings below, with Eastern teams on dashed lines!

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 7W 3D 1L +15GD 1651(4)
Next: @ N.E (05/13) , v LAF (05/17) , v NYF (05/23)

NSH

2.18

98.96%

15.57%

4.61%

4.57%

8.56%

38.40%

24.18%

15.24%

8.58%

5.16%

3.18%

1.97%

1.40%

0.87%

0.00%

(New England Revolution) 7W 1D 3L +7 GD 1570(7)
Next: v NSH (05/13) , v MIN (05/16) , @ CLT (05/23)

N.E

2.00

94.75%

5.98%

3.81%

4.55%

8.83%

17.88%

19.77%

17.34%

12.42%

8.86%

6.72%

5.05%

3.87%

2.84%

0.00%

(Inter Miami) 6W 4D 2L +5 GD 1683(3)
Next: @ CIN (05/13) , v POR (05/17) , v PHI (05/24)

MIA

1.83

98.80%

10.27%

5.11%

4.74%

9.41%

32.52%

26.55%

16.63%

9.58%

5.70%

3.29%

2.25%

1.42%

0.87%

0.00%

(Chicago Fire) 5W 2D 4L +6 GD 1410(21)
Next: @ DCU (05/13) , @ MTL (05/16) , v TOR (05/23)

CHI

1.55

64.88%

0.32%

2.62%

4.27%

7.54%

1.71%

3.65%

6.00%

7.87%

9.06%

9.26%

9.69%

9.11%

8.53%

0.38%

(DC United) 4W 4D 4L -2 GD 1483(15)
Next: v CHI (05/13) , v STL (05/16) , v MTL (05/23)

DCU

1.33

75.06%

0.28%

3.26%

4.69%

8.90%

1.91%

5.38%

8.82%

10.84%

11.18%

10.39%

9.96%

8.76%

7.83%

0.28%

(FC Cincinnati) 4W 4D 4L -3 GD 1542(11)
Next: v MIA (05/13) , @ S.D (05/16) , v ORL (05/23)

CIN

1.33

77.42%

0.59%

4.63%

5.56%

9.39%

3.17%

6.75%

9.88%

11.18%

10.93%

10.50%

9.46%

8.33%

7.23%

0.26%

(New York City FC) 4W 3D 5L +4 GD 1407(23)
Next: @ CLT (05/13) , @ NYR (05/16) , @ NSH (05/23)

NYF

1.25

53.31%

0.06%

2.58%

3.75%

6.44%

0.67%

1.92%

3.66%

5.46%

6.62%

7.76%

8.54%

9.12%

9.56%

1.17%

(Charlotte FC) 4W 3D 5L -1 GD 1460(17)
Next: v NYF (05/13) , v TOR (05/16) , v N.E (05/23)

CLT

1.25

68.76%

0.17%

2.97%

4.55%

7.97%

1.25%

4.21%

7.22%

9.45%

10.18%

9.98%

9.34%

8.91%

8.20%

0.50%

(New York Red Bulls) 4W 3D 5L -9 GD 1409(22)
Next: v CLB (05/13) , v NYF (05/16) , @ SKC (05/23)

NYR

1.25

60.49%

0.13%

2.26%

3.75%

7.14%

1.03%

2.68%

4.87%

6.93%

8.08%

9.10%

9.17%

9.25%

9.38%

1.14%

(Toronto FC) 3W 5D 4L -4 GD 1365(27)
Next: @ CLT (05/16) , @ CHI (05/23) , @ MTL (07/16)

TOR

1.17

39.01%

0.03%

1.95%

3.06%

4.94%

0.26%

1.00%

1.93%

3.24%

4.65%

5.63%

6.51%

7.53%

8.26%

3.12%

(CF Montréal) 4W 0D 7L -7 GD 1397(24)
Next: v POR (05/13) , v CHI (05/16) , @ DCU (05/23)

MTL

1.09

46.02%

0.07%

2.25%

3.41%

5.83%

0.60%

1.69%

3.01%

4.59%

5.65%

6.67%

7.26%

7.96%

8.58%

2.46%

(Columbus Crew) 3W 3D 6L -3 GD 1394(25)
Next: @ NYR (05/13) , @ PHI (05/16) , v ATL (05/24)

CLB

1.00

41.68%

0.02%

2.12%

3.25%

5.03%

0.36%

1.02%

2.23%

3.75%

4.96%

6.15%

6.89%

7.92%

8.41%

2.89%

(Atlanta United FC) 3W 1D 8L -7 GD 1320(29)
Next: @ ORL (05/16) , @ CLB (05/24) , @ NSH (07/17)

ATL

0.83

21.12%

0.00%

1.19%

1.73%

2.41%

0.04%

0.23%

0.58%

1.20%

1.90%

2.75%

3.88%

4.67%

5.88%

9.87%

(Orlando City) 3W 1D 8L -18GD 1421(20)
Next: v PHI (05/13) , v ATL (05/16) , @ CIN (05/23)

ORL

0.83

42.24%

0.01%

2.46%

3.47%

5.29%

0.17%

0.82%

2.15%

4.03%

5.45%

6.36%

6.93%

7.75%

8.57%

3.38%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 3D 8L -9 GD 1355(28)
Next: @ ORL (05/13) , v CLB (05/16) , @ MIA (05/24)

PHI

0.50

17.48%

0.00%

1.28%

1.54%

2.32%

0.02%

0.16%

0.45%

0.89%

1.63%

2.26%

3.11%

4.00%

4.97%

16.89%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Jose Earthquakes) 9W 2D 1L +19GD 1688(2)
Next: @ SEA (05/13) , v DAL (05/16) , @ POR (05/23)

S.J

2.42

98.46%

25.22%

5.35%

3.21%

9.21%

34.19%

23.79%

14.41%

9.29%

6.23%

4.37%

2.84%

2.12%

1.23%

0.00%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 8W 2D 1L +20GD 1692(1)
Next: @ DAL (05/13) , @ HOU (05/16) , @ S.D (05/23)

VCR

2.36

97.60%

21.44%

5.80%

3.38%

8.84%

30.46%

23.52%

15.04%

9.72%

6.83%

4.65%

3.31%

2.40%

1.69%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 6W 3D 3L +8 GD 1543(10)
Next: @ STL (05/13) , @ NSH (05/17) , v SEA (05/24)

LAF

1.75

78.25%

1.50%

4.46%

3.85%

9.05%

3.14%

5.38%

8.46%

10.42%

11.13%

11.03%

10.45%

9.68%

8.57%

0.00%

(Seattle Sounders) 6W 3D 1L +8 GD 1649(5)
Next: v S.J (05/13) , v LAG (05/16) , @ LAF (05/24)

SEA

2.10

93.88%

10.68%

5.14%

3.69%

9.30%

16.38%

17.02%

16.52%

12.51%

9.74%

7.51%

6.17%

4.48%

3.56%

0.00%

(Minnesota United FC) 6W 3D 3L -2 GD 1616(6)
Next: v COL (05/13) , @ N.E (05/16) , v RSL (05/23)

MIN

1.75

89.24%

3.38%

5.09%

3.95%

9.90%

6.37%

10.71%

13.56%

14.28%

12.57%

10.70%

8.56%

7.09%

5.39%

0.01%

(Real Salt Lake) 6W 1D 4L +3 GD 1507(13)
Next: v HOU (05/13) , v COL (05/16) , @ MIN (05/23)

RSL

1.73

70.12%

1.27%

4.02%

3.54%

8.02%

2.62%

4.96%

6.86%

8.70%

9.47%

9.64%

9.49%

9.08%

9.31%

0.10%

(FC Dallas) 5W 4D 3L +7 GD 1558(8)
Next: v VCR (05/13) , @ S.J (05/16) , @ COL (05/23)

DAL

1.58

73.55%

0.95%

5.04%

4.02%

9.15%

2.11%

4.27%

7.14%

8.91%

10.66%

10.68%

10.75%

9.83%

9.19%

0.05%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 6W 0D 5L -2 GD 1555(9)
Next: @ RSL (05/13) , v VCR (05/16) , @ LAG (05/23)

HOU

1.64

73.06%

1.49%

4.89%

3.84%

8.59%

3.07%

5.40%

7.56%

9.10%

9.72%

10.09%

10.02%

9.45%

8.64%

0.10%

(LA Galaxy) 4W 4D 4L +0 GD 1512(12)
Next: @ SKC (05/13) , @ SEA (05/16) , v HOU (05/23)

LAG

1.33

54.31%

0.21%

4.23%

3.27%

7.02%

0.67%

1.84%

3.35%

5.11%

6.71%

8.07%

8.96%

9.65%

9.95%

0.34%

(Austin FC) 3W 5D 4L -3 GD 1491(14)
Next: @ S.D (05/13) , v SKC (05/16) , @ STL (05/23)

ATX

1.17

43.93%

0.08%

3.42%

2.69%

5.33%

0.25%

0.96%

2.03%

3.42%

4.63%

6.17%

7.64%

8.75%

10.08%

1.13%

(Colorado Rapids) 4W 1D 7L +2 GD 1377(26)
Next: @ MIN (05/13) , @ RSL (05/16) , v DAL (05/23)

COL

1.08

23.53%

0.01%

1.46%

1.35%

2.87%

0.07%

0.25%

0.67%

1.34%

2.02%

2.89%

4.16%

5.41%

6.72%

3.49%

(Portland Timbers) 4W 1D 6L -2 GD 1475(16)
Next: @ MTL (05/13) , @ MIA (05/17) , v S.J (05/23)

POR

1.18

45.23%

0.16%

3.30%

2.62%

5.74%

0.42%

1.19%

2.50%

3.76%

4.96%

6.65%

7.49%

8.68%

9.58%

1.12%

(San Diego FC) 3W 4D 5L +0 GD 1440(18)
Next: v ATX (05/13) , v CIN (05/16) , v VCR (05/23)

S.D

1.08

30.95%

0.07%

2.52%

1.90%

3.69%

0.17%

0.43%

1.12%

1.90%

3.00%

4.11%

5.39%

6.82%

8.00%

2.45%

(St. Louis City SC) 2W 3D 6L -8 GD 1422(19)
Next: v LAF (05/13) , @ DCU (05/16) , v ATX (05/23)

STL

0.82

24.89%

0.02%

1.90%

1.60%

2.98%

0.07%

0.28%

0.75%

1.47%

2.18%

3.13%

4.26%

5.76%

6.99%

5.66%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 2D 8L -24GD 1257(30)
Next: v LAG (05/13) , @ ATX (05/16) , v NYR (05/23)

SKC

0.45

3.00%

0.00%

0.28%

0.20%

0.31%

0.00%

0.01%

0.07%

0.15%

0.31%

0.52%

0.81%

1.11%

43.19%

Number of sims: 30000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 76.26
Wooden Spoon average points: 19.41
East winner average points: 71.26
West winner average points: 74.49
East 4th place average points: 55.40
West 4th place average points: 59.95
East average points to make playoffs: 41.64
West average points to make playoffs: 45.75


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  VCR   W 1692 2.36  1442.2    1518.1
 2  S.J   W 1688 2.42  1456.9    1516.2
 3  MIA E   1683 1.83  1488.0    1425.0
 4  NSH E   1651 2.18  1468.0    1453.9
 5  SEA   W 1649 2.10  1504.0    1496.1
 6  MIN   W 1616 1.75  1553.2    1481.3
 7  N.E E   1570 2.00  1456.1    1471.3
 8  DAL   W 1558 1.58  1479.3    1520.7
 9  HOU   W 1555 1.64  1471.3    1528.4
10  LAF   W 1543 1.75  1506.5    1520.4
11  CIN E   1542 1.33  1445.0    1497.8
12  LAG   W 1512 1.33  1462.8    1524.2
13  RSL   W 1507 1.73  1492.4    1516.8
14  ATX   W 1491 1.17  1537.3    1505.8
15  DCU E   1483 1.33  1502.7    1454.6
16  POR   W 1475 1.18  1516.7    1504.0
17  CLT E   1460 1.25  1509.6    1441.6
18  S.D   W 1440 1.08  1514.4    1514.3
19  STL   W 1422 0.82  1557.5    1490.4
20  ORL E   1421 0.83  1521.8    1453.7
21  CHI E   1410 1.55  1418.7    1492.0
22  NYR E   1409 1.25  1502.4    1443.6
23  NYF E   1407 1.25  1444.8    1483.6
24  MTL E   1397 1.09  1455.1    1481.8
25  CLB E   1394 1.00  1446.6    1472.0
26  COL   W 1377 1.08  1526.1    1506.8
27  TOR E   1365 1.17  1454.3    1490.2
28  PHI E   1355 0.50  1485.7    1465.0
29  ATL E   1320 0.83  1456.2    1485.3
30  SKC   W 1257 0.45  1539.2    1506.8

MLS Predictor as of May 3.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: TOR 1-1 S.J, SKC 1-1 SEA, RSL 2-0 POR, MIA 3-4 ORL, CLB 2-3 MIN, NYR 0-2 DAL, N.E 1-0 CLT, ATL 3-1 MTL, PHI 0-0 NSH, HOU 1-0 COL, CHI 2-3 CIN, S.D 2-2 LAF, LAG 1-1 VCR. Sunday: NYF 0-2 DCU, ATX 2-0 STL.

Summary: Toronto's draw at home with front-running San Jose moved them up four spots in the ELO rankings, and moved San Jose down enough to be vulnerable to Seattle and Vancouver later today. Seattle had the first chance to pass and whiffed in Kansas City, drawing 1-1 against the lowest-ranked team in the league, dropping them past Vancouver and Nashville to fifth in the ELO rankings. Portland's win against free-falling San Diego last week moved them up to 12th, but losing to RSL dropped them back down to 17th. And boom goes the dynamite at Inter Miami's Nu Stadium, where lowly Orlando gave up three in 35 minutes and got the next four to become the first team to win there, because Miami has only drawn three times, and now lost once. And the effect is huge on the rankings, Miami dropping all the way to fifth and Orlando rising eleven spots to 14th, with the first glut of results about to come in!

The upsets continue in the 4:30 start time slot, as Columbus blows a 2-0 lead at home to Minnesota, Dallas wins at the Red Bull stadium, and Philly holds East-leading Nashville scoreless! Huge effects on the rankings, as Red Bulls drop all the way to 29th, Charlotte and Columbus both fall below Orlando into the lower 15, and Vancouver and LAFC are left to take advantage of the shifting landscape. But all either can do is get a draw, and this leaves San Jose as the new leader, in both ELO ranking and points per game, followed by Vancouver, Nashville, Seattle, and Miami, with Minnesota and LAFC just on the edge of the top tier, then a drop of 72 points to New England, who in the actual standings are now in second in the East after Miami's sudden deflation. Next Saturday we will see Vancouver and San Jose battle it out for the top spot in the West!

Sunday's games continued the trend with NYCFC losing at home to DCU and plumetting to 27th as a result while DCU nearly got to the top half of the ELO list. Austin's win over St. Louis put them just past Orlando into 15th, while dropping St.Louis a few spots. This left 10 of the 15 Western teams in the top half, and vice versa.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 7W 2D 1L +15GD 1673(3)
Next: v DCU (05/09) , @ N.E (05/13) , v LAF (05/17)

NSH

2.30

99.27%

18.44%

5.11%

4.44%

8.60%

48.66%

21.56%

11.70%

6.86%

4.24%

2.72%

1.76%

1.04%

0.72%

0.00%

(New England Revolution) 6W 1D 3L +6 GD 1556(8)
Next: v PHI (05/09) , v NSH (05/13) , v MIN (05/16)

N.E

1.90

91.82%

3.48%

3.72%

4.32%

9.06%

13.43%

17.11%

15.74%

12.71%

9.78%

7.85%

6.42%

5.03%

3.74%

0.01%

(Inter Miami) 5W 4D 2L +3 GD 1658(5)
Next: @ TOR (05/09) , @ CIN (05/13) , v POR (05/17)

MIA

1.73

97.13%

5.34%

5.03%

4.65%

9.22%

22.30%

24.81%

17.34%

11.63%

7.68%

5.53%

3.53%

2.65%

1.66%

0.00%

(Chicago Fire) 5W 2D 3L +8 GD 1492(12)
Next: v NYR (05/09) , @ DCU (05/13) , @ MTL (05/16)

CHI

1.70

81.77%

1.03%

3.30%

4.83%

8.86%

5.16%

9.52%

11.77%

11.70%

10.82%

9.80%

8.80%

7.48%

6.65%

0.07%

(DC United) 4W 3D 4L -2 GD 1463(17)
Next: @ NSH (05/09) , v CHI (05/13) , v STL (05/16)

DCU

1.36

69.89%

0.22%

2.91%

4.49%

7.93%

2.02%

4.57%

7.23%

8.86%

9.70%

9.63%

9.38%

9.47%

8.64%

0.40%

(FC Cincinnati) 4W 3D 4L -3 GD 1540(10)
Next: @ CLT (05/09) , v MIA (05/13) , @ S.D (05/16)

CIN

1.36

77.56%

0.60%

4.75%

5.48%

9.48%

3.67%

7.22%

9.49%

10.84%

11.13%

9.99%

9.62%

8.04%

7.27%

0.29%

(Charlotte FC) 4W 2D 5L -1 GD 1462(18)
Next: v CIN (05/09) , v NYF (05/13) , v TOR (05/16)

CLT

1.27

69.69%

0.23%

2.98%

4.40%

8.07%

1.84%

5.24%

7.82%

9.23%

9.45%

9.67%

8.94%

8.40%

8.54%

0.56%

(Toronto FC) 3W 5D 3L -2 GD 1393(23)
Next: v MIA (05/09) , @ CLT (05/16) , @ CHI (05/23)

TOR

1.27

49.46%

0.01%

2.35%

3.29%

5.85%

0.66%

1.77%

3.26%

4.62%

5.63%

6.88%

7.49%

8.35%

8.67%

2.12%

(New York City FC) 3W 3D 5L +1 GD 1358(27)
Next: v LAF (05/06) , v CLB (05/10) , @ CLT (05/13)

NYF

1.09

39.76%

0.00%

1.80%

2.64%

4.28%

0.27%

0.98%

1.82%

2.68%

3.78%

5.02%

6.02%

7.05%

8.03%

4.10%

(Columbus Crew) 3W 3D 5L +0 GD 1436(21)
Next: @ NYF (05/10) , @ NYR (05/13) , @ PHI (05/16)

CLB

1.09

56.96%

0.06%

2.71%

3.88%

6.68%

0.72%

2.25%

4.23%

5.83%

7.53%

8.16%

8.68%

9.03%

8.94%

1.58%

(New York Red Bulls) 3W 3D 5L -11GD 1336(29)
Next: @ CHI (05/09) , v CLB (05/13) , v NYF (05/16)

NYR

1.09

40.95%

0.01%

1.55%

2.44%

4.27%

0.28%

0.95%

1.71%

2.86%

4.06%

5.07%

6.42%

7.14%

7.86%

4.60%

(Atlanta United FC) 3W 1D 7L -6 GD 1364(25)
Next: v LAG (05/09) , @ ORL (05/16) , @ CLB (05/24)

ATL

0.91

38.75%

0.00%

1.72%

2.48%

4.24%

0.16%

0.78%

1.53%

2.40%

3.58%

4.60%

5.72%

6.61%

7.87%

5.52%

(Orlando City) 3W 1D 7L -16GD 1467(16)
Next: @ MTL (05/09) , v PHI (05/13) , v ATL (05/16)

ORL

0.91

56.44%

0.03%

3.23%

4.25%

6.86%

0.50%

2.09%

3.99%

5.95%

7.37%

8.08%

8.40%

9.10%

8.96%

2.00%

(CF Montréal) 3W 0D 7L -9 GD 1344(28)
Next: v ORL (05/09) , v POR (05/13) , v CHI (05/16)

MTL

0.90

37.85%

0.02%

1.58%

2.27%

3.86%

0.29%

0.89%

1.61%

2.56%

3.23%

4.19%

4.98%

5.73%

6.66%

7.70%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 3D 7L -8 GD 1368(24)
Next: @ N.E (05/09) , @ ORL (05/13) , v CLB (05/16)

PHI

0.55

35.03%

0.00%

1.44%

1.96%

2.75%

0.05%

0.26%

0.76%

1.27%

2.00%

2.82%

3.85%

4.86%

5.79%

13.38%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Jose Earthquakes) 9W 1D 1L +19GD 1697(1)
Next: v VCR (05/09) , @ SEA (05/13) , v DAL (05/16)

S.J

2.55

98.80%

27.06%

5.59%

3.34%

8.86%

34.98%

22.45%

14.54%

10.07%

6.51%

4.38%

2.90%

1.90%

1.09%

0.00%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 8W 1D 1L +20GD 1683(2)
Next: @ S.J (05/09) , @ DAL (05/13) , @ HOU (05/16)

VCR

2.50

97.72%

18.98%

5.62%

3.74%

9.44%

25.92%

21.19%

16.03%

11.67%

8.78%

5.78%

4.17%

2.52%

1.66%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 6W 3D 2L +11GD 1628(7)
Next: @ NYF (05/06) , v HOU (05/10) , @ STL (05/13)

LAF

1.91

92.19%

4.47%

5.61%

4.34%

10.03%

7.29%

11.86%

14.09%

14.55%

13.50%

11.17%

8.54%

6.48%

4.71%

0.00%

(Seattle Sounders) 6W 2D 1L +8 GD 1673(4)
Next: v S.D (05/09) , v S.J (05/13) , v LAG (05/16)

SEA

2.22

95.86%

13.02%

5.36%

3.72%

9.47%

18.79%

18.51%

16.78%

12.80%

10.08%

7.11%

5.29%

3.74%

2.74%

0.00%

(Minnesota United FC) 6W 2D 3L -2 GD 1635(6)
Next: v ATX (05/10) , v COL (05/13) , @ N.E (05/16)

MIN

1.82

92.65%

4.04%

5.30%

4.27%

10.26%

6.97%

12.14%

14.74%

15.46%

13.53%

10.75%

8.27%

6.24%

4.56%

0.01%

(Real Salt Lake) 6W 1D 3L +5 GD 1541(9)
Next: @ DAL (05/09) , v HOU (05/13) , v COL (05/16)

RSL

1.90

79.74%

1.84%

4.63%

4.01%

9.49%

3.30%

6.44%

8.85%

10.31%

11.34%

11.61%

10.56%

9.10%

8.18%

0.05%

(FC Dallas) 4W 4D 3L +5 GD 1519(11)
Next: v RSL (05/09) , v VCR (05/13) , @ S.J (05/16)

DAL

1.45

63.04%

0.44%

4.34%

3.72%

8.08%

0.92%

2.21%

4.08%

6.00%

7.78%

9.98%

10.63%

10.85%

10.26%

0.33%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 5W 0D 5L -5 GD 1479(13)
Next: @ LAF (05/10) , @ RSL (05/13) , v VCR (05/16)

HOU

1.50

57.25%

0.42%

3.53%

3.42%

6.91%

0.92%

1.82%

3.29%

5.12%

6.82%

8.13%

9.36%

10.55%

10.74%

0.50%

(Colorado Rapids) 4W 1D 6L +3 GD 1443(20)
Next: v STL (05/09) , @ MIN (05/13) , @ RSL (05/16)

COL

1.18

44.67%

0.06%

2.74%

2.52%

5.19%

0.23%

0.82%

1.74%

3.27%

4.56%

6.33%

7.46%

8.84%

10.00%

1.42%

(LA Galaxy) 3W 4D 4L -1 GD 1473(14)
Next: @ ATL (05/09) , @ SKC (05/13) , @ SEA (05/16)

LAG

1.18

45.94%

0.11%

3.09%

2.54%

5.71%

0.28%

0.90%

1.79%

3.04%

4.64%

6.23%

8.14%

9.38%

10.22%

1.32%

(Austin FC) 3W 4D 4L -3 GD 1473(15)
Next: @ MIN (05/10) , @ S.D (05/13) , v SKC (05/16)

ATX

1.18

44.95%

0.04%

3.29%

2.80%

5.26%

0.14%

0.66%

1.54%

2.90%

4.44%

6.35%

8.05%

9.12%

10.36%

1.38%

(San Diego FC) 3W 3D 5L +0 GD 1418(22)
Next: @ SEA (05/09) , v ATX (05/13) , v CIN (05/16)

S.D

1.09

33.44%

0.01%

2.13%

1.96%

3.56%

0.08%

0.27%

0.77%

1.47%

2.43%

3.98%

5.46%

7.23%

8.66%

3.09%

(Portland Timbers) 3W 1D 6L -8 GD 1456(19)
Next: v SKC (05/09) , @ MTL (05/13) , @ MIA (05/17)

POR

1.00

43.23%

0.04%

3.10%

2.44%

5.05%

0.16%

0.66%

1.46%

2.69%

4.12%

5.86%

7.44%

8.89%

9.61%

2.35%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 3D 6L -9 GD 1363(26)
Next: @ COL (05/09) , v LAF (05/13) , @ DCU (05/16)

STL

0.60

29.49%

0.00%

1.02%

1.03%

2.01%

0.01%

0.07%

0.24%

0.53%

1.12%

1.78%

2.75%

3.65%

5.16%

14.18%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 2D 7L -18GD 1273(30)
Next: @ POR (05/09) , v LAG (05/13) , @ ATX (05/16)

SKC

0.50

38.70%

0.00%

0.47%

0.32%

0.68%

0.01%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.34%

0.58%

1.00%

1.51%

2.07%

33.04%

Number of sims: 25000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.44
Wooden Spoon average points: 19.51
East winner average points: 71.57
West winner average points: 75.91
East 4th place average points: 55.68
West 4th place average points: 60.96
East average points to make playoffs: 41.71
West average points to make playoffs: 45.13


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  S.J   W 1697 2.55  1455.4    1517.8
 2  VCR   W 1683 2.50  1412.6    1525.2
 3  NSH E   1673 2.30  1496.1    1447.4
 4  SEA   W 1673 2.22  1512.5    1487.5
 5  MIA E   1658 1.73  1499.4    1433.4
 6  MIN   W 1635 1.82  1570.2    1478.3
 7  LAF   W 1628 1.91  1500.7    1508.6
 8  N.E E   1556 1.90  1463.8    1468.0
 9  RSL   W 1541 1.90  1468.9    1521.2
10  CIN E   1540 1.36  1436.2    1501.0
11  DAL   W 1519 1.45  1475.7    1521.7
12  CHI E   1492 1.70  1428.0    1481.8
13  HOU   W 1479 1.50  1481.2    1529.9
14  LAG   W 1473 1.18  1470.9    1517.4
15  ATX   W 1473 1.18  1517.3    1516.8
16  ORL E   1467 0.91  1508.5    1464.7
17  DCU E   1463 1.36  1478.2    1468.6
18  CLT E   1462 1.27  1499.8    1441.8
19  POR   W 1456 1.00  1561.9    1488.8
20  COL   W 1443 1.18  1532.1    1497.7
21  CLB E   1436 1.09  1459.2    1465.0
22  S.D   W 1418 1.09  1488.7    1522.2
23  TOR E   1393 1.27  1445.6    1491.7
24  PHI E   1368 0.55  1476.6    1474.5
25  ATL E   1364 0.91  1472.9    1476.7
26  STL   W 1363 0.60  1565.5    1487.3
27  NYF E   1358 1.09  1451.3    1490.0
28  MTL E   1344 0.90  1463.6    1485.1
29  NYR E   1336 1.09  1489.6    1462.3
30  SKC   W 1273 0.50  1555.2    1503.3

MLS Predictor as of April 26

Brought to you by Python (the programming language)!

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: TOR 1-2 ATL, MTL 1-0 NYF, MIN 0-1 LAF, CLB 2-0 PHI, DCU 3-2 ORL, CIN 2-0 NYR, MIA 1-1 N.E, ATX 2-0 HOU, CHI 5-0 SKC, NSH 4-2 CLT, STL 2-3 S.J, S.D 1-2 POR, SEA 2-1 DAL, VCR 3-1 COL, (Sunday) LAG 2-1 RSL.

Summary: Messi-ami just can't buy a win at their new stadium. Another draw allowed NSH to move six points clear at the top of the East. S.J's comeback win in STL moved them 44 points closer to MIA at the top of the ELO rankings, with SEA a single point ahead of Vancouver for third after both won at home. ATL's win in TOR vaulted them past SKC into 29th place, and SKC's 5-0 loss in CHI left quite a gap between 29th and 30th. Portland lept from 20th to 12th after beating S.D today (their fifth straight loss); maybe Phil Neville is the answer, but it's taking a long time to find out. Sunday's game dropped RSL out of the almost elite tier and back into the peloton, while moving the Galaxy into the back of the peloton....

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 7W 1D 1L +15GD 1689(5)
Next: @ PHI (05/02) , v DCU (05/09) , @ N.E (05/13)

NSH

2.44

99.33%

17.32%

5.21%

4.26%

8.78%

44.80%

24.61%

13.10%

7.10%

4.16%

2.44%

1.51%

0.92%

0.69%

0.00%

(Inter Miami) 5W 4D 1L +4 GD 1742(1)
Next: v ORL (05/02) , @ TOR (05/09) , @ CIN (05/13)

MIA

1.90

99.27%

9.77%

6.36%

4.46%

8.92%

34.28%

29.55%

15.78%

8.40%

4.95%

2.90%

1.71%

1.11%

0.60%

0.00%

(Chicago Fire) 5W 2D 2L +9 GD 1558(8)
Next: v CIN (05/02) , v NYR (05/09) , @ DCU (05/13)

CHI

1.89

90.48%

1.92%

4.00%

4.72%

9.29%

8.18%

13.70%

16.22%

14.47%

11.48%

8.98%

7.15%

5.78%

4.48%

0.03%

(New England Revolution) 5W 1D 3L +5 GD 1528(9)
Next: v CLT (05/02) , v PHI (05/09) , v NSH (05/13)

N.E

1.78

86.86%

1.43%

3.45%

4.38%

9.16%

6.44%

11.72%

14.64%

13.48%

11.37%

9.43%

7.98%

6.39%

5.34%

0.07%

(Charlotte FC) 4W 2D 4L +0 GD 1487(11)
Next: @ N.E (05/02) , v CIN (05/09) , v NYF (05/13)

CLT

1.40

76.52%

0.21%

3.15%

4.48%

9.03%

1.86%

5.79%

10.70%

11.46%

11.24%

10.44%

9.11%

8.27%

7.32%

0.34%

(Toronto FC) 3W 4D 3L -2 GD 1375(27)
Next: v S.J (05/02) , v MIA (05/09) , @ CLT (05/16)

TOR

1.30

46.36%

0.04%

2.28%

3.01%

5.40%

0.36%

1.30%

2.49%

3.88%

5.07%

6.33%

7.28%

8.33%

8.96%

2.36%

(New York City FC) 3W 3D 4L +3 GD 1424(20)
Next: v DCU (05/03) , v LAF (05/06) , v CLB (05/10)

NYF

1.20

55.55%

0.05%

2.77%

3.64%

6.70%

0.70%

1.82%

4.03%

6.12%

7.02%

8.20%

8.52%

8.74%

8.86%

1.53%

(Columbus Crew) 3W 3D 4L +1 GD 1479(14)
Next: v MIN (05/02) , @ NYF (05/10) , @ NYR (05/13)

CLB

1.20

67.88%

0.13%

3.45%

4.51%

8.29%

1.02%

3.46%

6.59%

8.63%

9.87%

9.96%

9.84%

9.25%

8.62%

0.65%

(FC Cincinnati) 3W 3D 4L -4 GD 1482(13)
Next: @ CHI (05/02) , @ CLT (05/09) , v MIA (05/13)

CIN

1.20

62.38%

0.10%

3.72%

4.59%

7.93%

0.98%

2.73%

4.96%

7.12%

8.50%

9.27%

9.30%

9.42%

9.10%

1.00%

(DC United) 3W 3D 4L -4 GD 1405(22)
Next: @ NYF (05/03) , @ NSH (05/09) , v CHI (05/13)

DCU

1.20

54.52%

0.04%

2.50%

3.73%

6.16%

0.44%

1.68%

3.41%

5.43%

7.30%

7.73%

8.35%

8.82%

9.70%

1.66%

(New York Red Bulls) 3W 3D 4L -9 GD 1388(23)
Next: v DAL (05/02) , @ CHI (05/09) , v CLB (05/13)

NYR

1.20

53.07%

0.03%

2.22%

3.23%

5.97%

0.48%

1.58%

3.34%

4.90%

6.39%

7.66%

8.44%

8.78%

9.23%

2.27%

(CF Montréal) 3W 0D 6L -7 GD 1382(26)
Next: @ ATL (05/02) , v ORL (05/09) , v POR (05/13)

MTL

1.00

45.80%

0.06%

1.93%

3.04%

5.11%

0.32%

1.27%

2.39%

4.11%

4.96%

5.95%

7.12%

7.38%

8.28%

4.00%

(Atlanta United FC) 2W 1D 7L -8 GD 1320(29)
Next: v MTL (05/02) , v LAG (05/09) , @ ORL (05/16)

ATL

0.70

34.23%

0.00%

1.27%

1.83%

2.66%

0.04%

0.15%

0.54%

1.33%

2.12%

3.18%

4.25%

5.30%

5.81%

11.50%

(Orlando City) 2W 1D 7L -17GD 1386(25)
Next: @ MIA (05/02) , @ MTL (05/09) , v PHI (05/13)

ORL

0.70

39.21%

0.00%

1.97%

2.65%

4.02%

0.06%

0.47%

1.31%

2.34%

3.74%

4.69%

5.57%

6.94%

7.34%

6.75%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 2D 7L -8 GD 1351(28)
Next: v NSH (05/02) , @ N.E (05/09) , @ ORL (05/13)

PHI

0.50

34.94%

0.00%

1.40%

1.80%

2.58%

0.03%

0.17%

0.51%

1.22%

1.83%

2.84%

3.87%

4.58%

5.66%

14.22%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Jose Earthquakes) 9W 0D 1L +19GD 1714(2)
Next: @ TOR (05/02) , v VCR (05/09) , @ SEA (05/13)

S.J

2.70

99.22%

28.76%

5.40%

3.43%

9.20%

38.44%

24.09%

14.69%

8.96%

5.44%

3.58%

2.10%

1.24%

0.69%

0.00%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 8W 0D 1L +20GD 1693(4)
Next: @ LAG (05/02) , @ S.J (05/09) , @ DAL (05/13)

VCR

2.67

98.25%

18.52%

5.49%

3.65%

9.33%

26.28%

23.42%

17.51%

11.53%

7.68%

5.10%

3.22%

2.19%

1.32%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 6W 2D 2L +11GD 1638(6)
Next: @ S.D (05/02) , @ NYF (05/06) , v HOU (05/10)

LAF

2.00

93.58%

4.41%

5.24%

4.50%

10.05%

7.44%

12.61%

16.16%

16.08%

13.84%

10.22%

7.50%

5.72%

4.00%

0.00%

(Seattle Sounders) 6W 1D 1L +8 GD 1694(3)
Next: @ SKC (05/02) , v S.D (05/09) , v S.J (05/13)

SEA

2.38

97.31%

14.04%

5.37%

3.72%

9.50%

20.72%

21.41%

18.52%

12.85%

8.94%

6.07%

4.16%

2.76%

1.88%

0.00%

(Minnesota United FC) 5W 2D 3L -3 GD 1598(7)
Next: @ CLB (05/02) , v ATX (05/10) , v COL (05/13)

MIN

1.70

87.86%

1.80%

4.75%

4.65%

9.90%

3.64%

7.76%

11.89%

14.76%

14.30%

11.94%

10.02%

7.70%

5.82%

0.03%

(Real Salt Lake) 5W 1D 3L +3 GD 1508(10)
Next: v POR (05/02) , @ DAL (05/09) , v HOU (05/13)

RSL

1.78

72.56%

0.72%

4.02%

3.71%

8.43%

1.66%

4.14%

7.03%

9.19%

10.62%

10.83%

10.27%

9.84%

8.89%

0.09%

(Colorado Rapids) 4W 1D 5L +4 GD 1475(15)
Next: @ HOU (05/02) , v STL (05/09) , @ MIN (05/13)

COL

1.30

56.10%

0.20%

3.49%

3.25%

6.81%

0.47%

1.45%

3.18%

5.40%

7.28%

8.76%

9.29%

9.89%

9.80%

0.59%

(FC Dallas) 3W 4D 3L +3 GD 1475(16)
Next: @ NYR (05/02) , v RSL (05/09) , v VCR (05/13)

DAL

1.30

51.31%

0.06%

3.46%

3.20%

6.26%

0.25%

1.07%

2.43%

4.28%

5.96%

7.65%

8.82%

9.63%

10.11%

1.10%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 4W 0D 5L -6 GD 1443(19)
Next: v COL (05/02) , @ LAF (05/10) , @ RSL (05/13)

HOU

1.33

49.17%

0.16%

3.13%

2.92%

5.85%

0.37%

0.97%

2.05%

3.83%

5.52%

6.97%

8.64%

9.48%

10.02%

1.32%

(LA Galaxy) 3W 3D 4L -1 GD 1463(17)
Next: v VCR (05/02) , @ ATL (05/09) , @ SKC (05/13)

LAG

1.20

48.52%

0.08%

3.25%

3.02%

5.72%

0.28%

1.09%

1.91%

3.48%

5.00%

6.95%

8.53%

9.35%

10.66%

1.26%

(San Diego FC) 3W 2D 5L +0 GD 1407(21)
Next: v LAF (05/02) , @ SEA (05/09) , v ATX (05/13)

S.D

1.10

34.85%

0.02%

2.23%

1.99%

3.85%

0.06%

0.34%

0.80%

1.78%

2.87%

4.32%

5.95%

7.16%

8.63%

2.92%

(Portland Timbers) 3W 1D 5L -6 GD 1485(12)
Next: @ RSL (05/02) , v SKC (05/09) , @ MTL (05/13)

POR

1.11

53.39%

0.10%

3.70%

3.32%

6.68%

0.29%

1.11%

2.18%

4.40%

6.49%

8.44%

9.37%

10.05%

9.90%

1.16%

(Austin FC) 2W 4D 4L -5 GD 1444(18)
Next: v STL (05/03) , @ MIN (05/10) , @ S.D (05/13)

ATX

1.00

39.25%

0.02%

2.61%

2.40%

4.50%

0.10%

0.39%

1.10%

2.24%

3.50%

5.16%

6.78%

7.97%

9.10%

2.90%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 3D 5L -7 GD 1388(24)
Next: @ ATX (05/03) , @ COL (05/09) , v LAF (05/13)

STL

0.67

32.78%

0.00%

1.82%

1.60%

3.23%

0.02%

0.12%

0.49%

1.10%

2.24%

3.38%

4.34%

5.68%

7.06%

8.34%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 7L -18GD 1251(30)
Next: v SEA (05/02) , @ POR (05/09) , v LAG (05/13)

SKC

0.44

39.46%

0.00%

0.36%

0.35%

0.68%

0.00%

0.01%

0.07%

0.12%

0.31%

0.62%

1.00%

1.32%

2.11%

33.89%

Number of sims: 25000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 79.25
Wooden Spoon average points: 18.73
East winner average points: 73.68
West winner average points: 77.55
East 4th place average points: 56.43
West 4th place average points: 61.08
East average points to make playoffs: 41.45
West average points to make playoffs: 44.53


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  MIA E   1742 1.90  1508.4    1432.5
 2  S.J   W 1714 2.70  1443.6    1503.7
 3  SEA   W 1694 2.38  1523.5    1479.3
 4  VCR   W 1693 2.67  1401.7    1518.9
 5  NSH E   1689 2.44  1490.7    1452.6
 6  LAF   W 1638 2.00  1495.0    1506.6
 7  MIN   W 1598 1.70  1567.0    1473.7
 8  CHI E   1558 1.89  1411.1    1488.7
 9  N.E E   1528 1.78  1486.0    1466.1
10  RSL   W 1508 1.78  1480.0    1510.6
11  CLT E   1487 1.40  1496.5    1447.9
12  POR   W 1485 1.11  1554.2    1494.3
13  CIN E   1482 1.20  1433.6    1510.0
14  CLB E   1479 1.20  1440.6    1473.9
15  COL   W 1475 1.30  1540.8    1498.0
16  DAL   W 1475 1.30  1470.0    1521.8
17  LAG   W 1463 1.20  1462.4    1517.5
18  ATX   W 1444 1.00  1537.1    1505.8
19  HOU   W 1443 1.33  1495.8    1513.9
20  NYF E   1424 1.20  1464.8    1485.8
21  S.D   W 1407 1.10  1475.0    1521.5
22  DCU E   1405 1.20  1474.2    1480.0
23  NYR E   1388 1.20  1485.0    1467.3
24  STL   W 1388 0.67  1573.4    1480.8
25  ORL E   1386 0.70  1507.6    1477.0
26  MTL E   1382 1.00  1468.0    1489.3
27  TOR E   1375 1.30  1418.7    1510.1
28  PHI E   1351 0.50  1474.8    1481.6
29  ATL E   1320 0.70  1488.8    1478.4
30  SKC   W 1251 0.44  1567.7    1500.9

MLS Predictor as of April 22 — First Mid-Week Matchday!

Brought to you by Python (the programming language)!

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: 22 of the 30 teams active mid-week and goals galore: NYR 4-4 DCU, TOR 3-3 PHI, NYF 4-4 CIN, CLB 2-1 LAG, ORL 4-1 CLT, ATL 1-2 N.E, DAL 0-1 MIN, HOU 1-0 S.D, RSL 0-2 MIA, S.J 5-1 ATX, LAF 0-0 COL.

Summary: 43 goals in 11 games is the story, with draws at 4-4 twice, 3-3, and 0-0 (not 2-2 or 1-1), including a goalkeeper scoring the winning goal in TOR on a last minute header. Another Miami road win increases their lead at the top of the Power Rankings, and S.J opens a small gap over SEA for second with their home wallop of ATX. At the other end, ATL has dropped below SKC for 30th, and is the new frontrunner for last place in the standings. Idle Nashville remained atop the East but has Miami a point back, but has a game in hand. In the West, San Jose's four late goals bumped their goal-difference to +18, same as Vancouver's, and put them atop the West, but Vancouver will have a game in hand. Vancouver at San Jose on May 9 will be huge, but is game two in an eight game Vancouver road trip. San Diego's sophomore season free-fall continues, now down to 15th in the Power Rankings, from fourth a month ago.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 6W 1D 1L +13GD 1672(5)
Next: v CLT (04/25) , @ PHI (05/02) , v DCU (05/09)

NSH

2.38

98.65%

15.23%

4.84%

4.12%

9.05%

34.95%

26.46%

14.80%

8.53%

5.44%

3.58%

2.38%

1.42%

1.10%

0.00%

(Inter Miami) 5W 3D 1L +4 GD 1765(1)
Next: v N.E (04/25) , v ORL (05/02) , @ TOR (05/09)

MIA

2.00

99.40%

17.15%

6.69%

4.58%

9.27%

44.91%

26.50%

12.80%

6.47%

3.68%

2.26%

1.48%

0.74%

0.56%

0.00%

(New England Revolution) 5W 0D 3L +5 GD 1506(10)
Next: @ MIA (04/25) , v CLT (05/02) , v PHI (05/09)

N.E

1.88

83.17%

1.35%

3.54%

4.29%

9.12%

5.07%

9.66%

12.88%

12.29%

10.95%

9.79%

8.30%

7.47%

6.68%

0.08%

(Chicago Fire) 4W 2D 2L +4 GD 1547(9)
Next: v SKC (04/25) , v CIN (05/02) , v NYR (05/09)

CHI

1.75

86.63%

1.73%

3.97%

4.66%

9.94%

6.15%

11.50%

14.23%

13.17%

11.58%

9.56%

7.92%

6.90%

5.56%

0.07%

(Charlotte FC) 4W 2D 3L +2 GD 1503(11)
Next: @ NSH (04/25) , @ N.E (05/02) , v CIN (05/09)

CLT

1.56

81.05%

0.67%

3.47%

4.52%

8.73%

3.32%

8.03%

11.80%

12.73%

11.95%

10.11%

8.79%

7.63%

6.53%

0.16%

(Toronto FC) 3W 4D 2L -1 GD 1452(18)
Next: v ATL (04/25) , v S.J (05/02) , v MIA (05/09)

TOR

1.44

65.25%

0.15%

3.22%

4.25%

7.63%

1.26%

3.71%

6.29%

7.70%

8.64%

9.37%

9.49%

9.25%

8.95%

0.60%

(New York City FC) 3W 3D 3L +4 GD 1467(16)
Next: @ MTL (04/26) , v DCU (05/03) , v LAF (05/06)

NYF

1.33

67.80%

0.22%

3.09%

4.41%

7.86%

1.50%

4.18%

6.88%

8.64%

9.28%

9.40%

9.30%

9.44%

8.61%

0.57%

(New York Red Bulls) 3W 3D 3L -7 GD 1416(22)
Next: @ CIN (04/25) , v DAL (05/02) , @ CHI (05/09)

NYR

1.33

60.70%

0.09%

2.58%

3.69%

6.56%

0.98%

3.06%

4.95%

6.72%

7.76%

8.48%

8.94%

9.11%

9.56%

1.16%

(Columbus Crew) 2W 3D 4L -1 GD 1452(17)
Next: v PHI (04/25) , v MIN (05/02) , @ NYF (05/10)

CLB

1.00

58.82%

0.06%

3.00%

3.99%

7.12%

0.55%

2.24%

4.42%

6.47%

7.57%

8.86%

9.00%

9.22%

9.15%

1.33%

(DC United) 2W 3D 4L -5 GD 1366(27)
Next: v ORL (04/25) , @ NYF (05/03) , @ NSH (05/09)

DCU

1.00

43.85%

0.02%

1.82%

3.09%

4.90%

0.24%

0.96%

2.22%

3.86%

4.66%

5.84%

6.86%

7.73%

8.30%

3.18%

(FC Cincinnati) 2W 3D 4L -6 GD 1450(19)
Next: v NYR (04/25) , @ CHI (05/02) , @ CLT (05/09)

CIN

1.00

53.37%

0.06%

3.32%

4.08%

6.40%

0.58%

1.72%

3.92%

5.02%

6.48%

7.45%

8.34%

8.86%

8.76%

2.26%

(Orlando City) 2W 1D 6L -16GD 1421(21)
Next: @ DCU (04/25) , @ MIA (05/02) , @ MTL (05/09)

ORL

0.78

46.80%

0.02%

2.43%

3.31%

5.34%

0.19%

0.97%

2.26%

3.92%

5.20%

6.24%

7.52%

8.10%

8.87%

3.56%

(CF Montréal) 2W 0D 6L -8 GD 1332(28)
Next: v NYF (04/26) , @ ATL (05/02) , v ORL (05/09)

MTL

0.75

38.24%

0.02%

1.47%

2.12%

3.57%

0.19%

0.63%

1.35%

2.27%

3.18%

4.17%

5.21%

5.78%

7.12%

8.34%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 2D 6L -6 GD 1374(26)
Next: @ CLB (04/25) , v NSH (05/02) , @ N.E (05/09)

PHI

0.56

35.70%

0.00%

1.66%

2.38%

3.22%

0.09%

0.36%

0.96%

1.82%

2.86%

3.76%

4.70%

5.83%

6.75%

8.57%

(Atlanta United FC) 1W 1D 7L -9 GD 1249(30)
Next: @ TOR (04/25) , v MTL (05/02) , v LAG (05/09)

ATL

0.44

35.78%

0.00%

0.60%

0.81%

1.28%

0.01%

0.02%

0.24%

0.40%

0.79%

1.14%

1.78%

2.53%

3.53%

25.34%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Jose Earthquakes) 8W 0D 1L +18GD 1693(2)
Next: @ STL (04/25) , @ TOR (05/02) , v VCR (05/09)

S.J

2.67

98.22%

22.73%

5.68%

3.62%

8.66%

32.63%

21.46%

14.72%

10.54%

7.31%

4.62%

3.20%

2.37%

1.36%

0.00%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 7W 0D 1L +18GD 1677(4)
Next: v COL (04/25) , @ LAG (05/02) , @ S.J (05/09)

VCR

2.62

97.02%

16.12%

5.40%

3.94%

9.73%

24.14%

20.68%

16.18%

11.56%

8.43%

6.30%

4.57%

2.95%

2.21%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 5W 2D 2L +10GD 1578(7)
Next: @ MIN (04/25) , @ S.D (05/02) , @ NYF (05/06)

LAF

1.89

83.46%

2.20%

4.96%

4.37%

9.81%

4.42%

7.30%

10.05%

11.10%

12.16%

11.70%

10.22%

8.98%

7.52%

0.02%

(Minnesota United FC) 5W 2D 2L -2 GD 1665(6)
Next: v LAF (04/25) , @ CLB (05/02) , v ATX (05/10)

MIN

1.89

93.99%

5.63%

5.34%

4.16%

10.22%

10.44%

14.42%

15.99%

14.84%

12.62%

9.56%

7.18%

4.99%

3.94%

0.00%

(Seattle Sounders) 5W 1D 1L +7 GD 1680(3)
Next: v DAL (04/25) , @ SKC (05/02) , v S.D (05/09)

SEA

2.29

95.80%

12.67%

5.05%

3.69%

9.36%

19.99%

19.05%

16.36%

12.76%

9.58%

6.90%

5.04%

3.57%

2.55%

0.00%

(Real Salt Lake) 5W 1D 2L +4 GD 1551(8)
Next: @ LAG (04/26) , v POR (05/02) , @ DAL (05/09)

RSL

2.00

80.51%

2.53%

4.46%

3.76%

9.16%

4.68%

7.62%

9.44%

11.03%

11.49%

10.49%

9.68%

8.52%

7.52%

0.04%

(Colorado Rapids) 4W 1D 4L +6 GD 1490(12)
Next: @ VCR (04/25) , @ HOU (05/02) , v STL (05/09)

COL

1.44

60.45%

0.34%

3.83%

3.54%

7.68%

0.92%

2.21%

4.14%

6.03%

7.94%

8.91%

9.97%

10.07%

0.29%

(FC Dallas) 3W 4D 2L +4 GD 1488(13)
Next: @ SEA (04/25) , @ NYR (05/02) , v RSL (05/09)

DAL

1.44

55.54%

0.25%

3.58%

3.48%

6.97%

0.72%

1.74%

3.06%

5.11%

6.53%

8.00%

9.46%

10.29%

10.16%

0.46%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 4W 0D 4L -4 GD 1484(14)
Next: @ ATX (04/25) , v COL (05/02) , @ LAF (05/10)

HOU

1.50

59.46%

0.47%

3.61%

3.68%

6.97%

1.13%

2.64%

3.90%

5.65%

6.82%

8.83%

9.78%

10.28%

9.94%

0.50%

(San Diego FC) 3W 2D 4L +1 GD 1469(15)
Next: v POR (04/25) , v LAF (05/02) , @ SEA (05/09)

S.D

1.22

50.54%

0.11%

3.32%

3.14%

6.24%

0.40%

1.18%

2.34%

3.92%

5.50%

7.50%

8.66%

9.79%

10.37%

0.89%

(LA Galaxy) 2W 3D 4L -2 GD 1413(23)
Next: v RSL (04/26) , v VCR (05/02) , @ ATL (05/09)

LAG

1.00

35.33%

0.08%

2.20%

3.89%

0.22%

0.52%

1.06%

2.16%

3.04%

4.33%

5.67%

7.05%

8.06%

3.22%

(Portland Timbers) 2W 1D 5L -7 GD 1431(20)
Next: @ S.D (04/25) , @ RSL (05/02) , v SKC (05/09)

POR

0.88

37.76%

0.03%

2.29%

2.19%

4.18%

0.14%

0.53%

1.16%

2.10%

3.36%

4.79%

6.06%

7.71%

8.76%

3.14%

(Austin FC) 1W 4D 4L -7 GD 1396(25)
Next: v HOU (04/25) , v STL (05/03) , @ MIN (05/10)

ATX

0.78

29.77%

0.02%

1.81%

1.43%

2.77%

0.06%

0.19%

0.57%

1.30%

2.02%

3.10%

4.22%

5.21%

6.93%

6.16%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 3D 4L -6 GD 1412(24)
Next: v S.J (04/25) , @ ATX (05/03) , @ COL (05/09)

STL

0.75

34.57%

0.04%

2.19%

2.08%

3.58%

0.11%

0.43%

0.96%

1.69%

2.78%

4.16%

5.00%

6.42%

7.84%

5.19%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 6L -13GD 1261(29)
Next: @ CHI (04/25) , v SEA (05/02) , @ POR (05/09)

SKC

0.50

32.34%

0.00%

0.58%

0.43%

0.77%

0.00%

0.02%

0.07%

0.21%

0.41%

0.82%

1.28%

1.90%

2.75%

24.87%

Number of sims: 25000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 78.68
Wooden Spoon average points: 17.86
East winner average points: 73.98
West winner average points: 76.54
East 4th place average points: 56.62
West 4th place average points: 61.18
East average points to make playoffs: 41.54
West average points to make playoffs: 44.86


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  MIA E   1765 2.00  1520.8    1425.6
 2  S.J   W 1693 2.67  1427.2    1510.4
 3  SEA   W 1680 2.29  1572.3    1467.8
 4  VCR   W 1677 2.62  1418.7    1510.9
 5  NSH E   1672 2.38  1503.7    1448.1
 6  MIN   W 1665 1.89  1552.8    1472.7
 7  LAF   W 1578 1.89  1475.4    1521.8
 8  RSL   W 1551 2.00  1470.7    1511.0
 9  CHI E   1547 1.75  1422.4    1480.5
10  N.E E   1506 1.88  1418.6    1491.8
11  CLT E   1503 1.56  1470.6    1453.0
12  COL   W 1490 1.44  1514.5    1511.1
13  DAL   W 1488 1.44  1445.5    1529.9
14  HOU   W 1484 1.50  1487.9    1511.3
15  S.D   W 1469 1.22  1504.1    1506.3
16  NYF E   1467 1.33  1467.1    1477.0
17  CLB E   1452 1.00  1450.0    1469.4
18  TOR E   1452 1.44  1432.6    1492.1
19  CIN E   1450 1.00  1465.1    1501.0
20  POR   W 1431 0.88  1554.5    1497.0
21  ORL E   1421 0.78  1507.7    1478.9
22  NYR E   1416 1.33  1469.6    1470.9
23  LAG   W 1413 1.00  1472.4    1512.2
24  STL   W 1412 0.75  1571.4    1488.0
25  ATX   W 1396 0.78  1564.9    1505.1
26  PHI E   1374 0.56  1452.7    1486.8
27  DCU E   1366 1.00  1490.5    1473.3
28  MTL E   1332 0.75  1499.9    1478.4
29  SKC   W 1261 0.50  1554.7    1504.8
30  ATL E   1249 0.44  1479.0    1485.9

MLS Predictor as of April 19

Brought to you by Python (the programming language)!

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: Friday: VCR 3-0 SKC, Saturday: TOR 3-3 ATX, MTL 4-1 NYR, COL 2-3 MIA, ATL 0-2 NSH, ORL 0-1 HOU, NYF 1-2 CLT, N.E 2-1 CLB, CIN 3-3 CHI, PHI 0-0 DCU, MIN 2-0 POR, DAL 2-2 LAG, RSL 4-2 S.D, SEA 4-1 STL. Sunday: LAF 1-4 S.J.

Summary: The Friday result changed little, only 5 ELO points changed hands when the expected VCR win over SKC happened, but that was just enough to drop SKC down to 30th on the Power Rankings, although MTL can still venture lower with an adverse result tomorrow. More importantly, the Vancouver win leaves them atop the actual standings with the two next highest teams set to play one another on Sunday night.

Saturday's early game helped ATX more than TOR, but both teams stayed at the same ELO rank while Toronto got to fourth in the East, at least until the other matches today are completed. Montreal's win over Red Bulls knocked NYRB down five places in the ELO ranks and got Montreal off the bottom, although SKC displaced them last night with their loss in Vancouver. Miami's win over Colorado put them back over 1700 in ELO, tops in the league, and dropped Colorado a place to 14th. The later Saturday games featured Eastern teams unable to win at home, with Nashville's win in Atlanta bringing them from 5th to 3rd in ELO rankings. Eastern teams have two of the top eight places in the ELO rankings and five of the bottom six. The late Saturday games included RSL taking out S.D 4-2 at home and SEA whacking STL 4-1 at home. S.D now clings to the last Western playoff spot and Seattle has passed Vancouver to take second on the ELO rankings, thanks mostly to a tougher schedule so far: Vancouver has one more home game before an endless eight game road trip. The final game of the week was a big road win for S.J against LAFC, transferring 64 points and moving S.J to second on the ELO list, and LAFC down to eighth. Vancouver tops the table because of goal difference but S.J and SEA are ahead of them on the ELO list based mostly on the tougher schedule they've had so far.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 6W 1D 1L +13GD 1672(5)
Next: v CLT (04/25) , @ PHI (05/02) , v DCU (05/09)

NSH

2.38

98.80%

17.02%

4.94%

4.29%

8.70%

38.90%

23.24%

14.03%

8.72%

5.58%

3.58%

2.32%

1.36%

1.07%

0.00%

(Inter Miami) 4W 3D 1L +2 GD 1726(1)
Next: @ RSL (04/22) , v N.E (04/25) , v ORL (05/02)

MIA

1.88

98.50%

12.08%

5.72%

5.01%

9.91%

33.04%

24.84%

15.56%

9.62%

6.20%

4.11%

2.42%

1.69%

1.02%

0.00%

(Charlotte FC) 4W 2D 2L +5 GD 1561(9)
Next: @ ORL (04/22) , @ NSH (04/25) , @ N.E (05/02)

CLT

1.75

89.83%

2.36%

3.56%

4.90%

9.33%

8.16%

13.63%

15.52%

13.79%

11.28%

9.48%

7.38%

5.90%

4.66%

0.04%

(Chicago Fire) 4W 2D 2L +4 GD 1547(10)
Next: v SKC (04/25) , v CIN (05/02) , v NYR (05/09)

CHI

1.75

87.59%

1.94%

3.95%

5.33%

9.98%

7.16%

11.07%

13.09%

12.86%

12.05%

10.00%

8.85%

6.92%

5.54%

0.07%

(New England Revolution) 4W 0D 3L +4 GD 1477(14)
Next: @ ATL (04/22) , @ MIA (04/25) , v CLT (05/02)

N.E

1.71

76.33%

1.09%

3.21%

4.37%

8.80%

3.96%

7.10%

9.11%

10.00%

10.26%

10.19%

9.29%

8.29%

7.78%

0.35%

(Toronto FC) 3W 3D 2L -1 GD 1468(16)
Next: v PHI (04/22) , v ATL (04/25) , v S.J (05/02)

TOR

1.50

71.52%

0.59%

3.17%

4.42%

8.27%

2.68%

5.17%

7.18%

8.62%

9.37%

10.00%

9.83%

9.61%

8.67%

0.40%

(New York City FC) 3W 2D 3L +4 GD 1479(13)
Next: v CIN (04/22) , @ MTL (04/26) , v DCU (05/03)

NYF

1.38

72.20%

0.40%

3.43%

4.66%

8.40%

2.36%

5.04%

7.75%

9.55%

9.83%

9.94%

9.60%

9.09%

8.56%

0.48%

(New York Red Bulls) 3W 2D 3L -7 GD 1430(21)
Next: v DCU (04/22) , @ CIN (04/25) , v DAL (05/02)

NYR

1.38

65.86%

0.29%

2.89%

3.98%

7.28%

1.72%

3.76%

5.81%

7.82%

8.62%

9.42%

9.56%

9.46%

8.74%

0.94%

(DC United) 2W 2D 4L -5 GD 1353(26)
Next: @ NYR (04/22) , v ORL (04/25) , @ NYF (05/03)

DCU

1.00

44.62%

0.04%

1.98%

2.93%

4.91%

0.32%

1.18%

2.10%

3.38%

4.54%

5.68%

7.06%

8.09%

8.58%

3.69%

(FC Cincinnati) 2W 2D 4L -6 GD 1439(19)
Next: @ NYF (04/22) , v NYR (04/25) , @ CHI (05/02)

CIN

1.00

53.94%

0.15%

3.27%

4.08%

6.27%

0.81%

1.95%

3.38%

4.81%

6.27%

7.47%

8.52%

8.91%

9.54%

2.28%

(CF Montréal) 2W 0D 6L -8 GD 1332(28)
Next: v NYF (04/26) , @ ATL (05/02) , v ORL (05/09)

MTL

0.75

38.54%

0.02%

1.61%

2.20%

3.60%

0.28%

0.65%

1.30%

2.12%

3.13%

4.40%

4.98%

6.51%

7.66%

7.48%

(Columbus Crew) 1W 3D 4L -2 GD 1416(22)
Next: v LAG (04/22) , v PHI (04/25) , v MIN (05/02)

CLB

0.75

49.23%

0.04%

2.48%

3.44%

5.62%

0.42%

1.42%

2.75%

4.26%

5.83%

6.46%

7.36%

8.38%

8.88%

3.46%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 1D 6L -6 GD 1359(25)
Next: @ TOR (04/22) , @ CLB (04/25) , v NSH (05/02)

PHI

0.50

37.76%

0.00%

1.90%

2.20%

3.68%

0.10%

0.38%

0.96%

1.72%

2.73%

3.68%

4.78%

6.02%

7.15%

10.23%

(Atlanta United FC) 1W 1D 6L -8 GD 1282(29)
Next: v N.E (04/22) , @ TOR (04/25) , v MTL (05/02)

ATL

0.50

34.82%

0.00%

1.00%

1.41%

1.96%

0.06%

0.19%

0.45%

0.96%

1.56%

2.07%

3.08%

4.07%

5.26%

17.12%

(Orlando City) 1W 1D 6L -19GD 1352(27)
Next: v CLT (04/22) , @ DCU (04/25) , @ MIA (05/02)

ORL

0.50

37.60%

0.00%

1.55%

2.13%

3.28%

0.06%

0.39%

1.02%

1.76%

2.75%

3.50%

4.96%

5.69%

6.86%

10.60%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 7W 0D 1L +18GD 1677(4)
Next: v COL (04/25) , @ LAG (05/02) , @ S.J (05/09)

VCR

2.62

96.51%

16.67%

5.38%

3.86%

9.33%

24.25%

19.40%

15.08%

11.56%

8.84%

6.68%

4.86%

3.52%

2.32%

0.00%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 7W 0D 1L +14GD 1681(2)
Next: v ATX (04/22) , @ STL (04/25) , @ TOR (05/02)

S.J

2.62

96.62%

18.68%

5.38%

3.53%

9.06%

26.86%

20.07%

14.71%

10.99%

8.05%

6.26%

4.36%

3.20%

2.11%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 5W 1D 2L +10GD 1595(8)
Next: v COL (04/22) , @ MIN (04/25) , @ S.D (05/02)

LAF

2.00

84.22%

3.45%

4.97%

4.11%

9.66%

6.46%

9.04%

10.64%

11.84%

11.31%

10.77%

9.75%

8.05%

6.32%

0.03%

(Seattle Sounders) 5W 1D 1L +7 GD 1680(3)
Next: v DAL (04/25) , @ SKC (05/02) , v S.D (05/09)

SEA

2.29

95.18%

13.49%

5.06%

3.76%

9.72%

20.40%

17.89%

15.36%

12.18%

9.74%

7.17%

5.46%

4.04%

2.94%

0.00%

(Real Salt Lake) 5W 1D 1L +6 GD 1597(7)
Next: v MIA (04/22) , @ LAG (04/26) , v POR (05/02)

RSL

2.29

86.64%

5.85%

4.68%

3.98%

9.64%

9.58%

11.36%

12.10%

11.92%

10.91%

9.52%

8.67%

6.89%

5.66%

0.03%

(Minnesota United FC) 4W 2D 2L -3 GD 1624(6)
Next: @ DAL (04/22) , v LAF (04/25) , @ CLB (05/02)

MIN

1.75

87.16%

3.58%

5.38%

4.25%

9.78%

6.89%

10.20%

12.22%

12.39%

12.10%

10.68%

9.25%

7.40%

6.00%

0.02%

(FC Dallas) 3W 4D 1L +5 GD 1534(11)
Next: v MIN (04/22) , @ SEA (04/25) , @ NYR (05/02)

DAL

1.62

66.14%

0.88%

4.60%

3.88%

8.08%

2.05%

3.40%

5.24%

6.94%

8.38%

9.47%

10.08%

10.21%

10.15%

0.21%

(Colorado Rapids) 4W 0D 4L +6 GD 1474(15)
Next: @ LAF (04/22) , @ VCR (04/25) , @ HOU (05/02)

COL

1.50

55.66%

0.42%

3.36%

3.06%

6.70%

1.09%

2.22%

3.45%

5.11%

6.35%

7.86%

8.96%

9.80%

10.33%

0.50%

(San Diego FC) 3W 2D 3L +2 GD 1503(12)
Next: @ HOU (04/22) , v POR (04/25) , v LAF (05/02)

S.D

1.38

57.75%

0.40%

3.81%

3.49%

6.92%

0.96%

2.48%

4.14%

5.59%

7.22%

8.28%

9.11%

9.83%

9.64%

0.50%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 3W 0D 4L -5 GD 1444(17)
Next: v S.D (04/22) , @ ATX (04/25) , v COL (05/02)

HOU

1.29

45.18%

0.28%

2.72%

2.35%

5.26%

0.64%

1.55%

2.34%

3.50%

4.81%

6.03%

7.02%

8.26%

9.36%

1.67%

(LA Galaxy) 2W 3D 3L -1 GD 1444(18)
Next: @ CLB (04/22) , v RSL (04/26) , v VCR (05/02)

LAG

1.12

41.86%

0.10%

2.72%

2.59%

4.76%

0.38%

1.10%

1.85%

2.82%

4.14%

5.50%

6.71%

7.81%

9.45%

2.10%

(Portland Timbers) 2W 1D 5L -7 GD 1431(20)
Next: @ S.D (04/25) , @ RSL (05/02) , v SKC (05/09)

POR

0.88

34.49%

0.02%

2.44%

1.98%

3.86%

0.12%

0.49%

1.02%

1.76%

2.89%

4.02%

5.56%

6.99%

8.50%

3.15%

(Austin FC) 1W 4D 3L -3 GD 1406(24)
Next: @ S.J (04/22) , v HOU (04/25) , v STL (05/03)

ATX

0.88

30.83%

0.08%

2.23%

1.73%

3.12%

0.19%

0.37%

0.82%

1.60%

2.20%

3.36%

4.54%

5.83%

7.26%

4.65%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 3D 4L -6 GD 1412(23)
Next: v S.J (04/25) , @ ATX (05/03) , @ COL (05/09)

STL

0.75

33.17%

0.04%

2.07%

1.67%

3.45%

0.11%

0.41%

0.96%

1.62%

2.68%

3.72%

4.62%

6.44%

7.58%

5.02%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 6L -13GD 1261(30)
Next: @ CHI (04/25) , v SEA (05/02) , @ POR (05/09)

SKC

0.50

31.44%

0.00%

0.55%

0.41%

0.66%

0.00%

0.02%

0.08%

0.17%

0.36%

0.68%

1.04%

1.72%

2.37%

25.00%

Number of sims: 25000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 78.23
Wooden Spoon average points: 17.71
East winner average points: 73.45
West winner average points: 76.20
East 4th place average points: 57.04
West 4th place average points: 61.35
East average points to make playoffs: 41.27
West average points to make playoffs: 45.34


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  MIA E   1726 1.88  1506.3    1434.3
 2  S.J   W 1681 2.62  1452.3    1504.7
 3  SEA   W 1680 2.29  1563.5    1474.4
 4  VCR   W 1677 2.62  1421.5    1516.2
 5  NSH E   1672 2.38  1499.2    1444.3
 6  MIN   W 1624 1.75  1556.7    1479.5
 7  RSL   W 1597 2.29  1459.1    1511.0
 8  LAF   W 1595 2.00  1473.3    1521.7
 9  CLT E   1561 1.75  1465.9    1446.5
10  CHI E   1547 1.75  1412.2    1475.5
11  DAL   W 1534 1.62  1436.4    1533.5
12  S.D   W 1503 1.38  1504.9    1504.7
13  NYF E   1479 1.38  1475.6    1470.1
14  N.E E   1477 1.71  1422.1    1484.4
15  COL   W 1474 1.50  1491.5    1523.8
16  TOR E   1468 1.50  1452.1    1477.6
17  HOU   W 1444 1.29  1501.9    1513.2
18  LAG   W 1444 1.12  1471.3    1516.1
19  CIN E   1439 1.00  1453.6    1495.8
20  POR   W 1431 0.88  1544.1    1506.9
21  NYR E   1430 1.38  1486.0    1462.4
22  CLB E   1416 0.75  1461.2    1462.8
23  STL   W 1412 0.75  1588.7    1490.9
24  ATX   W 1406 0.88  1546.0    1518.8
25  PHI E   1359 0.50  1448.5    1485.0
26  DCU E   1353 1.00  1486.2    1471.5
27  ORL E   1352 0.50  1511.8    1478.2
28  MTL E   1332 0.75  1492.3    1476.7
29  ATL E   1282 0.50  1483.1    1476.8
30  SKC   W 1261 0.50  1559.4    1509.2

MLS Predictor as of April 12

Brought to you by Python (the programming language)!

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: TOR 1-1 CIN, ATX 1-2 LAG, MTL 1-2 PHI, POR 2-1 LAF, N.E 1-0 DCU, MIA 2-2 NYR, CLT 1-2 NSH, VCR 2-0 NYF, DAL 1-1 STL, SKC 1-3 S.J, CHI 1-0 ATL, COL 6-2 HOU, S.D 1-2 MIN, (Sunday) CLB 1-1 ORL. (SEA - RSL postponed to Sept. 23, I assume due to World Cup preparations at Lumen Field).

Summary: After the April 11 "undercard" matches, which included Toronto giving up a late shorthanded goal to draw with Cincinnati at home, and Philadelphia finally getting a win, we have a new Wooden Spoon favourite, allowing Sporting KC fans to relax for a few hours at least and hand the spotlight to ... Montreal, who lost 2-1 at home to Philly and dropped to 30th place in the ELO rankings! The main events are still to come in "Super Saturday," with (finally!) several matches between top-tier teams.

The interim match was a surprise 2-1 win for Portland over a rested LAFC squad with many of their top players not making the trip. This dropped LAFC to #2 in the rankings behind Miami, and moved Portland up seven places to 18th!

Vancouver's win against NYCFC moved them up to #1 overall after LAFC's loss in Portland, and #2 in the rankings behind Miami, who got another draw in their new stadium against Red Bulls NY, losing two more points in the race with Nashville, who lead the East by four points after their win in Charlotte. SKC re-took the Wooden Spoon pole position with their 3-1 loss at home to San Jose, but have risen to #29 in the ELO rankings thanks to Montreal's plummet after the loss to Philly. Chicago's win against Atlanta moved them past Miami for second in the East.

The later games saw Houston thumped by Colorado, bringng Colorado level with Dallas for sixth in the ultracompetitive West, and Minnesota upset San Diego at home by grabbing the lead and bunkering after a San Diego player was sent off, and putting the two teams tied at 11 points and eighth in the West. Five home losses today, four by a 1-2 scoreline and the other by a 1-3 scoreline. Sunday's 1-1 draw between Columbus and Orlando kept both teams pretty much where they were last week.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 5W 1D 1L +11GD 1655(5)
Next: @ ATL (04/18) , v CLT (04/25) , @ PHI (05/02)

NSH

2.29

97.31%

15.16%

4.66%

4.84%

8.94%

34.43%

19.90%

13.25%

9.72%

6.85%

5.10%

3.64%

2.60%

1.82%

0.01%

(Chicago Fire) 4W 1D 2L +4 GD 1548(10)
Next: @ CIN (04/18) , v SKC (04/25) , v CIN (05/02)

CHI

1.86

85.90%

2.99%

3.92%

4.80%

9.61%

9.44%

12.01%

11.78%

11.24%

10.34%

9.58%

8.13%

7.27%

6.00%

0.09%

(Inter Miami) 3W 3D 1L +1 GD 1696(1)
Next: @ COL (04/18) , @ RSL (04/22) , v N.E (04/25)

MIA

1.71

96.38%

9.74%

5.47%

4.92%

9.56%

26.62%

21.06%

15.41%

10.62%

7.78%

5.65%

4.18%

2.95%

2.09%

0.01%

(New York City FC) 3W 2D 2L +5 GD 1540(11)
Next: v CLT (04/18) , v CIN (04/22) , @ MTL (04/26)

NYF

1.57

81.83%

2.21%

3.66%

4.86%

9.34%

7.58%

9.83%

10.82%

10.63%

10.38%

9.44%

8.68%

7.48%

6.83%

0.16%

(Charlotte FC) 3W 2D 2L +4 GD 1507(14)
Next: @ NYF (04/18) , @ ORL (04/22) , @ NSH (04/25)

CLT

1.57

78.88%

1.38%

3.21%

4.86%

8.35%

5.34%

8.73%

9.85%

10.19%

10.09%

9.64%

9.02%

8.30%

7.41%

0.32%

(Toronto FC) 3W 2D 2L -1 GD 1483(16)
Next: v ATX (04/18) , v PHI (04/22) , v ATL (04/25)

TOR

1.57

73.64%

1.11%

3.41%

4.65%

8.12%

4.31%

6.86%

7.84%

9.20%

9.60%

9.32%

9.17%

8.92%

8.04%

0.38%

(New York Red Bulls) 3W 2D 2L -4 GD 1492(15)
Next: @ MTL (04/18) , v DCU (04/22) , @ CIN (04/25)

NYR

1.57

75.87%

1.39%

3.55%

4.54%

8.36%

5.03%

7.43%

9.24%

9.62%

9.85%

9.53%

8.98%

8.32%

7.45%

0.41%

(New England Revolution) 3W 0D 3L +3 GD 1444(19)
Next: v CLB (04/18) , @ ATL (04/22) , @ MIA (04/25)

N.E

1.50

65.14%

0.93%

2.97%

4.04%

7.46%

3.44%

5.06%

6.56%

7.20%

7.77%

8.27%

8.36%

8.86%

8.59%

1.04%

(DC United) 2W 1D 4L -5 GD 1343(27)
Next: @ PHI (04/18) , @ NYR (04/22) , v ORL (04/25)

DCU

1.00

41.59%

0.06%

1.81%

2.60%

4.30%

0.49%

1.18%

2.04%

3.05%

3.83%

4.98%

6.08%

7.04%

8.31%

4.61%

(FC Cincinnati) 2W 1D 4L -6 GD 1439(20)
Next: v CHI (04/18) , @ NYF (04/22) , v NYR (04/25)

CIN

1.00

53.40%

0.20%

2.91%

3.69%

6.21%

1.15%

2.54%

3.76%

4.99%

6.18%

6.73%

7.92%

8.73%

8.78%

2.62%

(Columbus Crew) 1W 3D 3L -1 GD 1445(18)
Next: @ N.E (04/18) , v LAG (04/22) , v PHI (04/25)

CLB

0.86

55.66%

0.15%

2.89%

3.61%

6.41%

1.25%

2.60%

4.21%

5.33%

6.53%

7.59%

8.06%

8.57%

9.13%

2.40%

(Atlanta United FC) 1W 1D 5L -6 GD 1301(28)
Next: v NSH (04/18) , v N.E (04/22) , @ TOR (04/25)

ATL

0.57

34.02%

0.01%

1.10%

1.70%

2.50%

0.12%

0.40%

0.85%

1.30%

1.98%

2.62%

3.59%

4.31%

5.78%

13.07%

(Orlando City) 1W 1D 5L -18GD 1412(23)
Next: v HOU (04/18) , v CLT (04/22) , @ DCU (04/25)

ORL

0.57

46.24%

0.05%

2.25%

3.12%

5.34%

0.45%

1.54%

2.51%

3.79%

4.72%

5.64%

6.75%

7.46%

8.36%

5.03%

(Philadelphia Union) 1W 0D 6L -6 GD 1369(26)
Next: v DCU (04/18) , @ TOR (04/22) , @ CLB (04/25)

PHI

0.43

37.20%

0.02%

1.65%

2.22%

3.68%

0.28%

0.64%

1.36%

2.14%

2.65%

4.01%

4.83%

5.88%

6.90%

8.51%

(CF Montréal) 1W 0D 6L -11GD 1261(30)
Next: v NYR (04/18) , v NYF (04/26) , @ ATL (05/02)

MTL

0.43

35.00%

0.01%

0.88%

1.22%

1.84%

0.08%

0.24%

0.52%

0.96%

1.46%

1.90%

2.61%

3.31%

4.52%

19.41%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 6W 0D 1L +15GD 1672(2)
Next: v SKC (04/17) , v COL (04/25) , @ LAG (05/02)

VCR

2.57

95.14%

16.82%

5.33%

3.78%

9.28%

23.98%

17.74%

14.23%

11.16%

8.93%

6.93%

5.30%

3.92%

2.96%

0.00%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 6W 0D 1L +11GD 1617(6)
Next: @ LAF (04/19) , v ATX (04/22) , @ STL (04/25)

S.J

2.57

91.13%

11.30%

4.75%

3.75%

9.44%

16.59%

14.68%

12.95%

11.26%

10.07%

8.66%

7.01%

5.49%

4.41%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 5W 1D 1L +13GD 1669(3)
Next: v S.J (04/19) , v COL (04/22) , @ MIN (04/25)

LAF

2.29

92.31%

11.64%

5.96%

3.99%

10.13%

17.45%

15.50%

13.19%

11.60%

9.88%

8.18%

6.98%

5.31%

4.21%

0.01%

(Real Salt Lake) 4W 1D 1L +4 GD 1566(8)
Next: v S.D (04/18) , v MIA (04/22) , @ LAG (04/26)

RSL

2.17

78.58%

4.63%

4.41%

3.86%

8.70%

7.43%

9.02%

9.54%

9.74%

9.71%

9.20%

8.68%

8.24%

6.94%

0.08%

(Seattle Sounders) 4W 1D 1L +4 GD 1668(4)
Next: v STL (04/18) , v DAL (04/25) , @ SKC (05/02)

SEA

2.17

92.77%

11.86%

5.32%

3.91%

9.50%

18.06%

16.08%

13.69%

11.76%

9.68%

7.99%

6.54%

5.01%

3.96%

0.00%

(Colorado Rapids) 4W 0D 3L +7 GD 1508(13)
Next: v MIA (04/18) , @ LAF (04/22) , @ VCR (04/25)

COL

1.71

64.36%

1.26%

4.14%

3.39%

7.58%

2.50%

4.44%

5.84%

7.07%

7.96%

8.41%

9.28%

9.52%

9.11%

0.24%

(FC Dallas) 3W 3D 1L +5 GD 1551(9)
Next: v LAG (04/18) , v MIN (04/22) , @ SEA (04/25)

DAL

1.71

69.88%

1.96%

4.70%

3.62%

8.43%

3.70%

5.56%

7.00%

7.86%

8.59%

9.58%

9.20%

9.13%

9.06%

0.20%

(San Diego FC) 3W 2D 2L +4 GD 1531(12)
Next: @ RSL (04/18) , @ HOU (04/22) , v POR (04/25)

S.D

1.57

65.64%

1.29%

4.22%

3.56%

7.85%

2.55%

4.08%

5.60%

7.24%

8.00%

9.02%

9.48%

9.68%

9.71%

0.27%

(Minnesota United FC) 3W 2D 2L -5 GD 1606(7)
Next: v POR (04/18) , @ DAL (04/22) , v LAF (04/25)

MIN

1.57

80.80%

3.22%

4.85%

3.94%

8.78%

6.09%

8.51%

10.06%

10.65%

10.77%

9.97%

9.26%

8.63%

6.76%

0.10%

(LA Galaxy) 2W 2D 3L -1 GD 1428(21)
Next: @ DAL (04/18) , @ CLB (04/22) , v RSL (04/26)

LAG

1.14

39.79%

0.18%

2.46%

2.21%

4.58%

0.56%

1.28%

1.92%

2.83%

3.54%

4.85%

6.18%

7.06%

8.87%

2.69%

(Portland Timbers) 2W 1D 4L -5 GD 1448(17)
Next: @ MIN (04/18) , @ S.D (04/25) , @ RSL (05/02)

POR

1.00

41.58%

0.14%

2.79%

2.30%

4.66%

0.32%

1.06%

2.06%

2.84%

3.97%

5.32%

6.51%

8.26%

8.87%

2.35%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 2W 0D 4L -6 GD 1391(25)
Next: @ ORL (04/18) , v S.D (04/22) , @ ATX (04/25)

HOU

1.00

35.04%

0.14%

2.13%

1.83%

3.52%

0.30%

0.77%

1.52%

2.12%

3.07%

3.84%

5.05%

6.26%

7.52%

4.59%

(Austin FC) 1W 3D 3L -3 GD 1392(24)
Next: @ TOR (04/18) , @ S.J (04/22) , v HOU (04/25)

ATX

0.86

30.09%

0.06%

1.78%

1.58%

2.85%

0.16%

0.42%

0.79%

1.50%

2.10%

3.08%

3.99%

5.29%

6.89%

5.88%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 3D 3L -3 GD 1424(22)
Next: @ SEA (04/18) , v S.J (04/25) , @ ATX (05/03)

STL

0.86

36.18%

0.09%

2.31%

2.11%

3.89%

0.28%

0.82%

1.54%

2.11%

3.36%

4.21%

5.31%

6.48%

8.04%

4.02%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 5L -10GD 1266(29)
Next: @ VCR (04/17) , @ CHI (04/25) , v SEA (05/02)

SKC

0.57

28.65%

0.00%

0.53%

0.50%

0.82%

0.02%

0.05%

0.08%

0.28%

0.37%

0.76%

1.21%

1.70%

2.68%

21.50%

Number of sims: 25000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.28
Wooden Spoon average points: 17.43
East winner average points: 72.38
West winner average points: 75.34
East 4th place average points: 57.15
West 4th place average points: 61.02
East average points to make playoffs: 41.96
West average points to make playoffs: 45.53


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  MIA E   1696 1.71  1522.2    1442.1
 2  VCR   W 1672 2.57  1458.2    1501.3
 3  LAF   W 1669 2.29  1459.2    1520.7
 4  SEA   W 1668 2.17  1585.4    1470.7
 5  NSH E   1655 2.29  1516.2    1446.2
 6  S.J   W 1617 2.57  1424.7    1515.7
 7  MIN   W 1606 1.57  1583.5    1476.8
 8  RSL   W 1566 2.17  1471.6    1509.8
 9  DAL   W 1551 1.71  1456.6    1522.2
10  CHI E   1548 1.86  1380.8    1483.7
11  NYF E   1540 1.57  1487.0    1468.4
12  S.D   W 1531 1.57  1455.8    1514.4
13  COL   W 1508 1.71  1474.8    1522.5
14  CLT E   1507 1.57  1450.8    1456.8
15  NYR E   1492 1.57  1477.4    1468.6
16  TOR E   1483 1.57  1492.1    1467.5
17  POR   W 1448 1.00  1526.4    1505.6
18  CLB E   1445 0.86  1458.8    1465.7
19  N.E E   1444 1.50  1435.5    1480.3
20  CIN E   1439 1.00  1452.8    1492.9
21  LAG   W 1428 1.14  1452.5    1516.6
22  STL   W 1424 0.86  1572.9    1497.2
23  ORL E   1412 0.57  1551.0    1465.5
24  ATX   W 1392 0.86  1530.6    1519.5
25  HOU   W 1391 1.00  1531.8    1506.9
26  PHI E   1369 0.43  1459.6    1479.7
27  DCU E   1343 1.00  1485.9    1477.1
28  ATL E   1301 0.57  1461.0    1480.4
29  SKC   W 1266 0.57  1516.1    1523.6
30  MTL E   1261 0.43  1533.6    1476.5

MLS Predictor as of April 4, end of day.

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: Everyone played a match on a wild Easter Saturday: TOR 3-2 COL, RSL 3-1 SKC, N.E 3-0 MTL, NYR 4-2 CIN, NYF 1-1 STL, MIA 2-2 ATX, DCU 0-4 DAL, CLT 2-1 PHI, ATL 1-3 CLB, CHI 1-0 NSH, HOU 0-1 SEA, LAF 6-0 ORL, VAN 3-2 POR, S.J 3-0 S.D, LAG 1-2 MIN

Summary: Miami's draw at their new home to Austin dropped them to second in the ELO Power Rankings, and LAFC took full advantage with a 6-0 win over Orlando. Nashville remains atop the East standings despite conceding the only goal of the game 18 seconds in in Chicago, dropping them from 3rd to 5th in ELO. Seattle's late winner in Houston moved them from 5th to 3rd, and Vancouver's last minute pair against Portland saved them from what could have been a huge drop, leaving them fourth. San Jose's win at home against San Diego leaves the teams 10th and 4th last week now 6th and 7th. Dallas and Salt Lake are now knocking on the top tier door.

At the other end of the scale, the Wooden Spoon race is now controlled by the team I am calling the Philadelphia 0nion (at least until they get their first point....), but the ELO rankings began by assuming PHI would be a top-six contender this year, so PHI's ELO has not found its level yet. Doesn't stop them from being the favourites for last, followed by Sporting KC, Atlanta, and Montreal, as well as Portland after a frustrating added-time loss to Vancouver.

In the middle of the pack, some upward movement by Toronto, Chicago, New England, and Charlotte has balanced the East-West divide a little, but seven of the top ten are still Western Division squads.

Massive games coming next week: NSH @ CLT, NYF @ VCR, NYR @ MIA, S.J @ SKC, RSL @ SEA. Even PHI @ MTL might be a crucial match in the eventual Wooden Spoon race....

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 4W 1D 1L +10GD 1610(5)
Next: @ CLT (04/11) , @ ATL (04/18) , v CLT (04/25)

NSH

2.17

93.05%

7.99%

4.50%

4.72%

9.48%

20.37%

17.09%

13.91%

11.27%

8.88%

7.56%

5.80%

4.67%

3.45%

0.04%

(New York City FC) 3W 2D 1L +7 GD 1563(10)
Next: @ VCR (04/11) , v CLT (04/18) , v CIN (04/22)

NYF

1.83

84.99%

2.89%

4.18%

4.96%

9.65%

9.36%

11.66%

11.80%

11.17%

10.38%

9.28%

8.13%

7.12%

5.96%

0.12%

(Charlotte FC) 3W 2D 1L +5 GD 1558(11)
Next: v NSH (04/11) , @ NYF (04/18) , @ ORL (04/22)

CLT

1.83

85.78%

3.50%

3.74%

4.63%

9.27%

11.32%

12.96%

12.21%

11.09%

10.15%

8.73%

7.43%

6.29%

5.42%

0.17%

(Inter Miami) 3W 2D 1L +1 GD 1719(2)
Next: v NYR (04/11) , @ COL (04/18) , @ RSL (04/22)

MIA

1.83

97.14%

13.85%

5.26%

4.57%

9.37%

34.92%

20.34%

14.20%

9.49%

6.43%

4.47%

3.46%

2.22%

1.59%

0.01%

(Chicago Fire) 3W 1D 2L +3 GD 1536(13)
Next: v ATL (04/11) , @ CIN (04/18) , v SKC (04/25)

CHI

1.67

81.29%

2.15%

4.04%

4.67%

9.04%

7.31%

9.66%

10.77%

10.45%

9.72%

9.41%

8.98%

7.75%

7.01%

0.23%

(Toronto FC) 3W 1D 2L -1 GD 1497(14)
Next: v CIN (04/11) , v ATX (04/18) , v PHI (04/22)

TOR

1.67

76.32%

1.63%

3.25%

4.75%

8.68%

6.12%

7.51%

8.71%

9.13%

9.78%

9.73%

8.93%

8.41%

7.65%

0.34%

(New York Red Bulls) 3W 1D 2L -4 GD 1470(16)
Next: @ MIA (04/11) , @ MTL (04/18) , v DCU (04/22)

NYR

1.67

71.25%

0.97%

3.05%

4.46%

7.97%

3.68%

6.13%

7.47%

8.53%

9.09%

9.27%

9.09%

9.04%

8.45%

0.52%

(DC United) 2W 1D 3L -4 GD 1367(26)
Next: @ N.E (04/11) , @ PHI (04/18) , @ NYR (04/22)

DCU

1.17

45.66%

0.14%

1.90%

2.75%

4.84%

0.75%

1.97%

2.83%

3.94%

4.92%

5.95%

6.41%

7.00%

8.57%

3.32%

(New England Revolution) 2W 0D 3L +2 GD 1418(21)
Next: v DCU (04/11) , v CLB (04/18) , @ ATL (04/22)

N.E

1.20

56.16%

0.43%

2.62%

3.53%

6.30%

2.08%

3.56%

4.75%

5.55%

6.36%

6.93%

7.83%

8.46%

8.33%

2.29%

(FC Cincinnati) 2W 0D 4L -6 GD 1426(19)
Next: @ TOR (04/11) , v CHI (04/18) , @ NYF (04/22)

CIN

1.00

51.13%

0.29%

2.80%

3.63%

5.95%

1.47%

2.40%

3.49%

4.86%

5.54%

6.38%

7.14%

8.07%

8.65%

3.13%

(Columbus Crew) 1W 2D 3L -1 GD 1458(18)
Next: v ORL (04/12) , @ N.E (04/18) , v LAG (04/22)

CLB

0.83

59.48%

0.21%

3.04%

3.85%

6.57%

1.54%

3.52%

4.46%

6.17%

7.43%

7.77%

8.87%

8.66%

9.26%

1.80%

(Atlanta United FC) 1W 1D 4L -5 GD 1312(29)
Next: @ CHI (04/11) , v NSH (04/18) , v N.E (04/22)

ATL

0.67

35.44%

0.03%

1.39%

1.96%

2.71%

0.22%

0.65%

1.09%

1.61%

2.38%

3.19%

3.82%

5.30%

6.41%

10.78%

(CF Montréal) 1W 0D 5L -10GD 1319(28)
Next: v PHI (04/11) , v NYR (04/18) , v NYF (04/26)

MTL

0.50

37.84%

0.03%

1.46%

2.02%

3.19%

0.32%

0.74%

1.41%

2.08%

2.85%

3.46%

4.55%

5.58%

6.32%

10.52%

(Orlando City) 1W 0D 5L -18GD 1400(23)
Next: @ CLB (04/12) , v HOU (04/18) , v CLT (04/22)

ORL

0.50

45.16%

0.04%

2.35%

3.02%

4.59%

0.44%

1.47%

2.29%

3.49%

4.38%

5.50%

6.50%

7.50%

7.78%

5.82%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 6L -7 GD 1319(27)
Next: @ MTL (04/11) , v DCU (04/18) , @ TOR (04/22)

PHI

0.00

36.98%

0.01%

1.34%

1.54%

2.38%

0.09%

0.34%

0.61%

1.17%

1.71%

2.35%

3.06%

3.94%

5.17%

18.57%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Los Angeles FC) 5W 1D 0L +14GD 1736(1)
Next: @ POR (04/11) , v S.J (04/19) , v COL (04/22)

LAF

100

2.67

96.95%

23.44%

6.54%

4.08%

9.31%

32.48%

18.63%

13.29%

10.26%

7.88%

5.25%

4.12%

2.83%

2.21%

0.00%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 5W 0D 1L +13GD 1646(4)
Next: v NYF (04/11) , v SKC (04/17) , v COL (04/25)

VCR

2.50

91.75%

10.65%

5.50%

3.99%

9.35%

15.89%

15.05%

13.13%

11.74%

9.86%

8.54%

7.38%

5.82%

4.33%

0.01%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 5W 0D 1L +9 GD 1596(6)
Next: @ SKC (04/11) , @ LAF (04/19) , v ATX (04/22)

S.J

2.50

88.34%

7.43%

4.71%

3.90%

9.26%

11.54%

12.56%

12.71%

11.84%

10.43%

9.35%

7.87%

6.52%

5.53%

0.01%

(Real Salt Lake) 4W 1D 1L +4 GD 1566(9)
Next: @ SEA (04/12) , v S.D (04/18) , v MIA (04/22)

RSL

2.17

80.61%

4.29%

4.58%

3.88%

9.39%

6.98%

9.14%

10.18%

9.88%

10.46%

9.71%

9.05%

8.15%

6.95%

0.10%

(Seattle Sounders) 4W 1D 1L +4 GD 1668(3)
Next: v RSL (04/12) , v STL (04/18) , v DAL (04/25)

SEA

2.17

92.80%

11.43%

4.99%

3.71%

9.22%

16.96%

16.55%

14.43%

11.72%

9.72%

7.82%

6.59%

5.08%

3.92%

0.01%

(FC Dallas) 3W 2D 1L +5 GD 1570(8)
Next: v STL (04/11) , v LAG (04/18) , v MIN (04/22)

DAL

1.83

75.93%

2.58%

4.69%

3.90%

8.74%

4.61%

7.55%

8.41%

9.16%

9.80%

9.98%

9.10%

9.12%

8.01%

0.19%

(San Diego FC) 3W 2D 1L +5 GD 1594(7)
Next: v MIN (04/11) , @ RSL (04/18) , @ HOU (04/22)

S.D

1.83

79.48%

3.21%

4.87%

4.01%

9.70%

5.62%

8.06%

9.28%

10.45%

10.52%

9.80%

8.46%

7.37%

0.12%

(Colorado Rapids) 3W 0D 3L +3 GD 1477(15)
Next: v HOU (04/11) , v MIA (04/18) , @ LAF (04/22)

COL

1.50

56.22%

0.72%

3.41%

3.06%

6.38%

1.42%

3.13%

4.24%

5.25%

6.16%

7.61%

8.71%

9.12%

9.87%

0.71%

(Minnesota United FC) 2W 2D 2L -6 GD 1551(12)
Next: @ S.D (04/11) , v POR (04/18) , @ DAL (04/22)

MIN

1.33

68.80%

1.31%

4.46%

3.92%

8.29%

2.69%

4.86%

6.67%

7.72%

8.44%

9.62%

9.52%

9.75%

9.05%

0.48%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 2W 0D 3L -2 GD 1419(20)
Next: @ COL (04/11) , @ ORL (04/18) , v S.D (04/22)

HOU

1.20

42.01%

0.28%

2.29%

2.31%

4.68%

0.56%

1.25%

2.10%

3.15%

4.16%

5.45%

6.08%

7.61%

8.59%

3.06%

(Austin FC) 1W 3D 2L -2 GD 1460(17)
Next: v LAG (04/11) , @ TOR (04/18) , @ S.J (04/22)

ATX

1.00

45.41%

0.25%

2.77%

2.62%

5.11%

0.67%

1.67%

2.40%

3.65%

4.54%

5.92%

6.99%

7.96%

9.36%

2.27%

(LA Galaxy) 1W 2D 3L -2 GD 1368(25)
Next: @ ATX (04/11) , @ DAL (04/18) , @ CLB (04/22)

LAG

0.83

30.14%

0.05%

1.71%

1.53%

2.72%

0.17%

0.45%

0.84%

1.26%

2.03%

2.79%

3.65%

5.08%

6.54%

7.33%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 2D 3L -3 GD 1405(22)
Next: @ DAL (04/11) , @ SEA (04/18) , v S.J (04/25)

STL

0.83

36.79%

0.12%

2.25%

1.76%

3.97%

0.28%

0.71%

1.46%

2.31%

3.35%

4.09%

5.39%

6.37%

8.03%

4.80%

(Portland Timbers) 1W 1D 4L -6 GD 1374(24)
Next: v LAF (04/11) , @ MIN (04/18) , @ S.D (04/25)

POR

0.67

29.78%

0.04%

1.52%

1.48%

2.55%

0.09%

0.27%

0.62%

1.13%

1.81%

2.66%

3.82%

5.20%

6.25%

7.93%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 4L -8 GD 1289(30)
Next: v S.J (04/11) , @ VCR (04/17) , @ CHI (04/25)

SKC

0.67

27.33%

0.02%

0.78%

0.81%

1.33%

0.04%

0.10%

0.23%

0.47%

0.86%

1.43%

1.92%

2.94%

4.00%

15.32%

Number of sims: 20000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.81
Wooden Spoon average points: 17.20
East winner average points: 72.66
West winner average points: 75.97
East 4th place average points: 57.43
West 4th place average points: 61.25
East average points to make playoffs: 42.10
West average points to make playoffs: 45.19


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  LAF   W 1736 2.67  1462.2    1511.4
 2  MIA E   1719 1.83  1580.8    1436.6
 3  SEA   W 1668 2.17  1569.0    1470.5
 4  VCR   W 1646 2.50  1426.2    1510.5
 5  NSH E   1610 2.17  1488.8    1464.0
 6  S.J   W 1596 2.50  1437.9    1506.5
 7  S.D   W 1594 1.83  1457.6    1505.6
 8  DAL   W 1570 1.83  1503.7    1508.3
 9  RSL   W 1566 2.17  1494.8    1502.4
10  NYF E   1563 1.83  1414.7    1483.0
11  CLT E   1558 1.83  1423.4    1460.0
12  MIN   W 1551 1.33  1562.9    1485.1
13  CHI E   1536 1.67  1415.2    1473.3
14  TOR E   1497 1.67  1507.8    1466.3
15  COL   W 1477 1.50  1493.0    1522.0
16  NYR E   1470 1.67  1436.3    1487.4
17  ATX   W 1460 1.00  1582.7    1503.2
18  CLB E   1458 0.83  1469.6    1458.5
19  CIN E   1426 1.00  1427.6    1499.9
20  HOU   W 1419 1.20  1516.7    1507.6
21  N.E E   1418 1.20  1465.9    1474.2
22  STL   W 1405 0.83  1589.5    1498.6
23  ORL E   1400 0.50  1569.4    1470.9
24  POR   W 1374 0.67  1502.2    1520.6
25  LAG   W 1368 0.83  1435.4    1525.6
26  DCU E   1367 1.17  1485.9    1483.2
27  PHI E   1319 0.00  1488.7    1483.7
28  MTL E   1319 0.50  1573.9    1463.8
29  ATL E   1312 0.67  1422.0    1483.2
30  SKC   W 1289 0.67  1509.7    1518.0

MLS Predictor as of March 22 (International break next week, next MLS action April 4)

Brought to you by Python (the programming language)!

Latest results added: TOR 2-1 CLB, PHI 1-2 CHI, NSH 5-0 ORL, ATL 0-0 DCU, CLT 6-1 NYR, DAL 4-3 HOU, SKC 1-4 COL, STL 3-1 N.E, ATX 0-0 LAF, VCR 0-1 SJ, Sunday: CIN 4-3 MTL, NYF 2-3 MIA, MIN 0-0 SEA, POR 1-1 LAG, S.D 2-2 RSL.

Summary: We have a new Wooden Spoon front runner, and they are ... last year's Supporters Shield winners, PHI! They will be the last team to get a standings point when they win or tie a game, something that hasn't happened yet. STL's win against N.E got them out of the bottom of the rankings, replaced by Sporting KC. PHI has dropped from #6 to #29 with their five losses. The West continues to be the dominant division, with 9 of the top 13 teams and only four of the bottom 13.

Miami's win at Yankee Stadium put them back on top after their 3-nil defeat at LAFC knocked them off the top spot. The new Miami stadium has kept them on the road, giving them the toughest schedule so far, and 10 points from five road games against a decent group of teams is impressive, with the easiest remaining schedule in the league.

It begins to look as though there are two top tiers developing as we hit the first international break of the season. Tier 1 has MIA, LAF, NSH, S.D, SEA, and VCR, then a 51 point drop to Tier 2: NYF, CLT, S.J, RSL, DAL, MIN, and COL, then a 30 point drop, which takes us through the league average of about 1490. The rest of the teams from #14 CHI at 1481 down to #30 SKC at 1300 have fewer breaks forming tiers, but over time that may develop. Tier 1 teams will compete for division titles, while Tier 2 teams will hope for home advantage in the three-game first round series in the playoffs by finishing fourth or better. After that, it is teams on the bubble for the playoffs, and teams unlikely to make it. However, there is a lot of time left for one or more of our top team teams to fall suddenly and be passed by teams below.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 4W 1D 0L +11GD 1658(3)
Next: @ CHI (04/04) , @ CLT (04/11) , @ ATL (04/18)

NSH

100

2.60

96.25%

14.89%

4.80%

4.38%

9.36%

29.01%

20.45%

14.62%

10.44%

7.21%

5.42%

4.09%

2.99%

2.00%

0.01%

(New York City FC) 3W 1D 1L +7 GD 1584(7)
Next: v STL (04/04) , @ VCR (04/11) , v CLT (04/18)

NYF

2.00

87.92%

4.99%

4.21%

4.60%

9.11%

10.88%

14.31%

14.17%

11.83%

10.07%

7.99%

7.47%

6.13%

4.97%

0.07%

(Inter Miami) 3W 1D 1L +1 GD 1743(1)
Next: v ATX (04/04) , v NYR (04/11) , @ COL (04/18)

MIA

2.00

97.82%

18.97%

5.91%

4.49%

9.08%

37.41%

22.89%

13.60%

8.53%

5.76%

4.15%

2.67%

1.60%

1.21%

0.00%

(Charlotte FC) 2W 2D 1L +4 GD 1546(9)
Next: v PHI (04/04) , v NSH (04/11) , @ NYF (04/18)

CLT

1.60

81.50%

2.29%

3.76%

4.59%

9.05%

6.80%

10.63%

11.79%

11.03%

10.55%

9.05%

8.01%

6.77%

6.52%

0.35%

(Chicago Fire) 2W 1D 2L +2 GD 1481(14)
Next: v NSH (04/04) , v ATL (04/11) , @ CIN (04/18)

CHI

1.40

68.92%

0.97%

3.42%

4.16%

7.79%

3.33%

5.65%

7.57%

8.59%

8.99%

8.57%

8.51%

8.58%

8.04%

1.09%

(DC United) 2W 1D 2L +0 GD 1420(20)
Next: v DAL (04/04) , @ N.E (04/11) , @ PHI (04/18)

DCU

1.40

60.21%

0.49%

2.71%

3.53%

6.74%

1.82%

4.07%

5.32%

6.67%

7.49%

8.24%

7.97%

8.13%

8.45%

2.05%

(Toronto FC) 2W 1D 2L -2 GD 1458(16)
Next: v COL (04/04) , v CIN (04/11) , v ATX (04/18)

TOR

1.40

66.16%

0.89%

2.93%

3.99%

7.64%

3.07%

5.28%

6.79%

7.84%

8.07%

8.76%

8.48%

8.52%

8.08%

1.27%

(New York Red Bulls) 2W 1D 2L -6 GD 1429(19)
Next: v CIN (04/04) , @ MIA (04/11) , @ MTL (04/18)

NYR

1.40

60.48%

0.59%

2.83%

3.58%

6.71%

1.90%

3.90%

5.30%

6.73%

7.39%

8.55%

8.23%

7.67%

8.68%

2.13%

(FC Cincinnati) 2W 0D 3L -4 GD 1461(15)
Next: @ NYR (04/04) , @ TOR (04/11) , v CHI (04/18)

CIN

1.20

61.34%

0.63%

3.30%

4.01%

7.09%

2.05%

3.81%

5.83%

6.73%

7.46%

7.93%

8.37%

8.55%

8.58%

2.03%

(Atlanta United FC) 1W 1D 3L -3 GD 1371(27)
Next: v CLB (04/04) , @ CHI (04/11) , v NSH (04/18)

ATL

0.80

46.24%

0.15%

2.17%

2.94%

5.10%

0.65%

1.61%

2.44%

3.69%

4.69%

5.70%

6.41%

7.36%

7.55%

6.14%

(New England Revolution) 1W 0D 3L -1 GD 1385(25)
Next: v MTL (04/04) , v DCU (04/11) , v CLB (04/18)

N.E

0.75

50.51%

0.29%

2.36%

2.95%

5.03%

1.08%

2.29%

3.49%

4.89%

5.49%

5.96%

6.81%

7.17%

7.77%

5.55%

(CF Montréal) 1W 0D 4L -7 GD 1347(28)
Next: @ N.E (04/04) , v PHI (04/11) , v NYR (04/18)

MTL

0.60

43.53%

0.12%

1.76%

2.45%

4.25%

0.59%

1.21%

1.92%

3.23%

3.85%

4.71%

5.59%

6.40%

7.41%

8.63%

(Orlando City) 1W 0D 4L -12GD 1409(22)
Next: @ LAF (04/04) , @ CLB (04/12) , v HOU (04/18)

ORL

0.60

48.53%

0.20%

2.53%

3.03%

5.17%

0.63%

1.73%

3.25%

4.05%

5.40%

5.85%

6.79%

7.63%

7.93%

5.28%

(Columbus Crew) 0W 2D 3L -3 GD 1407(23)
Next: @ ATL (04/04) , v ORL (04/12) , @ N.E (04/18)

CLB

0.40

49.28%

0.16%

2.09%

3.05%

5.01%

0.60%

1.77%

3.01%

4.29%

5.17%

6.17%

6.71%

7.67%

7.68%

6.21%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 5L -6 GD 1331(29)
Next: @ CLT (04/04) , @ MTL (04/11) , v DCU (04/18)

PHI

0.00

39.89%

0.03%

1.58%

1.89%

2.88%

0.18%

0.40%

0.89%

1.47%

2.43%

2.96%

3.87%

4.81%

5.13%

17.75%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Los Angeles FC) 4W 1D 0L +8 GD 1727(2)
Next: v ORL (04/04) , @ POR (04/11) , v S.J (04/19)

LAF

100

2.60

95.53%

18.36%

6.36%

3.77%

9.44%

29.74%

18.47%

13.01%

9.87%

7.78%

6.12%

4.49%

3.51%

2.53%

0.01%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 4W 0D 1L +12GD 1635(6)
Next: v POR (04/04) , v NYF (04/11) , v SKC (04/17)

VCR

2.40

88.74%

8.57%

4.69%

4.29%

9.61%

15.31%

14.09%

12.53%

10.83%

9.61%

8.13%

7.39%

6.18%

4.65%

0.03%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 4W 0D 1L +6 GD 1545(10)
Next: v S.D (04/04) , @ SKC (04/11) , @ LAF (04/19)

S.J

2.40

78.46%

4.25%

4.11%

3.77%

8.17%

7.83%

9.46%

10.01%

9.57%

9.55%

8.61%

8.67%

7.96%

6.66%

0.13%

(San Diego FC) 3W 2D 0L +8 GD 1638(4)
Next: @ S.J (04/04) , v MIN (04/11) , @ RSL (04/18)

S.D

2.20

86.52%

7.24%

5.45%

3.91%

9.56%

13.19%

12.77%

12.14%

11.41%

9.67%

8.87%

7.11%

5.98%

5.33%

0.05%

(Seattle Sounders) 3W 1D 1L +3 GD 1637(5)
Next: @ HOU (04/04) , v RSL (04/12) , v STL (04/18)

SEA

2.00

88.64%

7.54%

4.88%

3.89%

9.43%

14.47%

14.40%

12.76%

11.53%

9.97%

8.12%

7.14%

5.67%

4.52%

0.06%

(Real Salt Lake) 3W 1D 1L +2 GD 1554(8)
Next: v SKC (04/04) , @ SEA (04/12) , v S.D (04/18)

RSL

2.00

76.59%

3.03%

4.10%

3.70%

8.15%

6.13%

8.60%

9.39%

9.57%

9.55%

9.19%

8.50%

8.12%

7.20%

0.33%

(Colorado Rapids) 3W 0D 2L +4 GD 1511(13)
Next: @ TOR (04/04) , v HOU (04/11) , v MIA (04/18)

COL

1.80

66.07%

1.65%

3.73%

3.45%

7.51%

3.67%

5.32%

6.61%

7.69%

7.84%

8.30%

8.39%

8.65%

9.07%

0.53%

(FC Dallas) 2W 2D 1L +1 GD 1525(11)
Next: @ DCU (04/04) , v STL (04/11) , v LAG (04/18)

DAL

1.60

65.85%

1.54%

3.69%

3.75%

7.65%

3.56%

5.38%

6.62%

7.11%

7.97%

8.59%

8.85%

8.80%

8.28%

0.69%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 2W 0D 2L -1 GD 1453(17)
Next: v SEA (04/04) , @ COL (04/11) , @ ORL (04/18)

HOU

1.50

52.52%

0.71%

3.05%

2.80%

5.89%

1.91%

3.27%

4.13%

4.98%

5.86%

6.65%

7.45%

7.90%

8.30%

2.08%

(LA Galaxy) 1W 2D 2L -1 GD 1413(21)
Next: v MIN (04/04) , @ ATX (04/11) , @ DAL (04/18)

LAG

1.00

40.58%

0.29%

2.27%

2.22%

4.23%

0.72%

1.36%

2.09%

3.03%

3.89%

4.80%

5.63%

6.31%

7.59%

5.15%

(Austin FC) 1W 2D 2L -2 GD 1436(18)
Next: @ MIA (04/04) , v LAG (04/11) , @ TOR (04/18)

ATX

1.00

42.79%

0.23%

3.09%

2.55%

4.42%

0.73%

1.53%

2.42%

3.35%

4.50%

5.25%

6.15%

6.94%

8.38%

3.54%

(Minnesota United FC) 1W 2D 2L -7 GD 1511(12)
Next: @ LAG (04/04) , @ S.D (04/11) , v POR (04/18)

MIN

1.00

58.88%

0.73%

3.37%

3.42%

7.14%

2.04%

3.51%

5.10%

6.35%

6.70%

7.79%

8.35%

8.79%

8.49%

1.76%

(St. Louis City SC) 1W 1D 3L -3 GD 1385(24)
Next: @ NYF (04/04) , @ DAL (04/11) , @ SEA (04/18)

STL

0.80

35.89%

0.13%

1.85%

1.87%

3.46%

0.34%

0.89%

1.49%

2.04%

2.99%

3.74%

4.87%

6.08%

7.07%

6.38%

(Portland Timbers) 1W 1D 3L -5 GD 1384(26)
Next: @ VCR (04/04) , v LAF (04/11) , @ MIN (04/18)

POR

0.80

34.45%

0.05%

1.91%

1.86%

3.47%

0.27%

0.68%

1.13%

1.82%

2.63%

3.73%

4.43%

5.61%

7.15%

7.01%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 3L -6 GD 1300(30)
Next: @ RSL (04/04) , v S.J (04/11) , @ VCR (04/17)

SKC

0.80

29.89%

0.02%

1.10%

1.12%

1.88%

0.09%

0.26%

0.58%

0.85%

1.47%

2.11%

2.57%

3.50%

4.79%

13.67%

Number of sims: 15000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 78.05
Wooden Spoon average points: 17.67
East winner average points: 74.19
West winner average points: 75.09
East 4th place average points: 57.55
West 4th place average points: 60.29
East average points to make playoffs: 41.87
West average points to make playoffs: 45.05


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  MIA E   1743 2.00  1637.2    1435.8
 2  LAF   W 1727 2.60  1488.6    1505.5
 3  NSH E   1658 2.60  1427.7    1470.7
 4  S.D   W 1638 2.20  1402.4    1508.4
 5  SEA   W 1637 2.00  1561.5    1471.1
 6  VCR   W 1635 2.40  1430.4    1504.8
 7  NYF E   1584 2.00  1461.5    1476.2
 8  RSL   W 1554 2.00  1563.5    1490.0
 9  CLT E   1546 1.60  1461.4    1457.2
10  S.J   W 1545 2.40  1435.0    1508.1
11  DAL   W 1525 1.60  1526.6    1501.6
12  MIN   W 1511 1.00  1585.5    1484.6
13  COL   W 1511 1.80  1483.7    1513.5
14  CHI E   1481 1.40  1411.7    1481.4
15  CIN E   1461 1.20  1394.5    1503.0
16  TOR E   1458 1.40  1511.6    1469.9
17  HOU   W 1453 1.50  1479.2    1506.3
18  ATX   W 1436 1.00  1531.6    1515.0
19  NYR E   1429 1.40  1449.0    1488.6
20  DCU E   1420 1.40  1492.4    1480.0
21  LAG   W 1413 1.00  1445.0    1513.8
22  ORL E   1409 0.60  1532.4    1483.0
23  CLB E   1407 0.40  1476.1    1465.9
24  STL   W 1385 0.80  1566.5    1501.0
25  N.E E   1385 0.75  1533.4    1470.4
26  POR   W 1384 0.80  1463.9    1521.3
27  ATL E   1371 0.80  1442.2    1476.4
28  MTL E   1347 0.60  1583.5    1471.3
29  PHI E   1331 0.00  1460.2    1489.9
30  SKC   W 1300 0.80  1482.7    1516.4

MLS Predictor as of March 15

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: March 14: TOR 1-1 NYR, ATL 3-1 PHI, CLB 0-1 NSH, ORL 2-1 MTL, NYF 3-1 COL, CLT 0-0 MIA, DAL 3-3 S.D, HOU 3-2 POR, CHI 1-2 DCU, RSL 2-1 ATX, LAG 1-2 SKC, LAF 2-0 STL. March 15: N.E 6-1 CIN, VCR 6-0 MIN, S.J 0-1 SEA.

Summary: STL, 30th in the ELO rankings, played well for 75 minutes at top seeded LAFC, but ELO will not notice when the favorites get two late goals. Nor do the ELO rankings know about Seattle's crunching of Vancouver 3-nil in mid-week CONCACAF play. Lots of late significant goals on Saturday, including Red Bulls tying goal in Toronto, Houston's 10-man winner at home to Portland, and the controversial penalty in Chicago handing a win to DC United. How many more losses does Philadelphia get before the voters on Coach of The Year last year are relieved of their duties this year? SKC's win against the Galaxy make Philly and St. Louis the new favorites for last place.
With four matches in for everyone, except for the snow-postponed N.E - HOU game, the most important stat beyond points so far may be the strength of schedule so far (below the standings), which is the average ELO rating of teams when they were faced, with a plus or minus 100 for home and away. This shows STL, MIA, MIN and MTL as the ones that the schedule makers handed the toughest start, and S.J, S.D, NYR, and VCR the teams handed the easiest starts. The strength remaining figure covers the remaining 30 games and has less variance, but will get more important as we get closer to the end of the season.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(New York City FC) 3W 1D 0L +8 GD 1633(7)
Next: v MIA (03/22) , v STL (04/04) , @ VCR (04/11)

NYF

100

2.50

92.56%

8.94%

4.72%

4.67%

8.75%

22.32%

17.53%

14.03%

11.04%

7.87%

6.82%

5.40%

4.20%

3.32%

0.03%

(Nashville SC) 3W 1D 0L +6 GD 1643(5)
Next: v ORL (03/21) , @ CHI (04/04) , @ CLT (04/11)

NSH

100

2.50

93.48%

10.37%

4.76%

4.28%

8.84%

26.15%

18.49%

13.42%

10.45%

8.03%

5.74%

4.68%

3.74%

2.74%

0.04%

(Inter Miami) 2W 1D 1L +0 GD 1700(3)
Next: @ NYF (03/22) , v ATX (04/04) , v NYR (04/11)

MIA

1.75

95.44%

10.37%

5.66%

4.84%

9.56%

26.79%

20.64%

14.91%

10.37%

7.22%

5.77%

4.16%

3.26%

2.31%

0.01%

(New York Red Bulls) 2W 1D 1L -1 GD 1457(15)
Next: @ CLT (03/21) , v CIN (04/04) , @ MIA (04/11)

NYR

1.75

67.06%

0.66%

3.02%

3.79%

7.53%

3.35%

6.03%

6.66%

8.06%

8.44%

8.74%

8.44%

8.24%

7.71%

1.39%

(DC United) 2W 0D 2L +0 GD 1415(23)
Next: @ ATL (03/21) , v DAL (04/04) , @ N.E (04/11)

DCU

1.50

59.11%

0.53%

2.36%

3.75%

6.35%

2.34%

3.98%

5.34%

6.97%

7.00%

7.31%

7.88%

7.83%

7.98%

2.48%

(Charlotte FC) 1W 2D 1L -1 GD 1514(9)
Next: v NYR (03/21) , v PHI (04/04) , v NSH (04/11)

CLT

1.25

73.59%

1.26%

3.43%

4.33%

8.54%

5.55%

7.60%

9.25%

9.21%

9.64%

8.53%

8.06%

7.34%

7.27%

1.14%

(Chicago Fire) 1W 1D 2L +1 GD 1436(17)
Next: @ PHI (03/21) , v NSH (04/04) , v ATL (04/11)

CHI

1.00

57.29%

0.49%

2.86%

3.57%

6.23%

2.15%

3.24%

4.87%

6.06%

6.41%

6.80%

7.85%

8.14%

3.63%

(Toronto FC) 1W 1D 2L -3 GD 1424(20)
Next: v CLB (03/21) , v COL (04/04) , v CIN (04/11)

TOR

1.00

57.10%

0.38%

2.76%

3.35%

6.18%

1.86%

3.79%

5.41%

5.93%

7.10%

7.23%

7.32%

7.47%

7.55%

3.44%

(New England Revolution) 1W 0D 2L +1 GD 1427(19)
Next: @ STL (03/21) , v MTL (04/04) , v DCU (04/11)

N.E

1.00

58.44%

0.49%

2.29%

3.69%

6.35%

2.49%

4.54%

5.42%

6.14%

7.27%

7.31%

7.53%

7.31%

7.12%

3.31%

(Atlanta United FC) 1W 0D 3L -3 GD 1376(27)
Next: v DCU (03/21) , v CLB (04/04) , @ CHI (04/11)

ATL

0.75

47.39%

0.21%

2.11%

2.68%

5.07%

1.19%

2.08%

3.39%

3.80%

5.00%

5.81%

5.76%

6.63%

7.71%

6.02%

(FC Cincinnati) 1W 0D 3L -5 GD 1436(18)
Next: v MTL (03/22) , @ NYR (04/04) , @ TOR (04/11)

CIN

0.75

52.38%

0.24%

2.93%

3.50%

5.75%

1.40%

2.76%

4.14%

4.76%

5.59%

6.58%

7.46%

7.52%

8.08%

4.09%

(CF Montréal) 1W 0D 3L -6 GD 1370(28)
Next: @ CIN (03/22) , @ N.E (04/04) , v PHI (04/11)

MTL

0.75

47.87%

0.23%

1.93%

2.51%

4.73%

1.09%

2.25%

2.70%

3.80%

4.84%

5.64%

6.06%

6.86%

7.53%

7.10%

(Orlando City) 1W 0D 3L -7 GD 1423(21)
Next: @ NSH (03/21) , @ LAF (04/04) , @ CLB (04/12)

ORL

0.75

53.08%

0.21%

2.55%

3.48%

5.89%

1.28%

2.57%

3.71%

5.20%

6.00%

6.68%

6.90%

7.87%

7.69%

5.18%

(Columbus Crew) 0W 2D 2L -2 GD 1437(16)
Next: @ TOR (03/21) , @ ATL (04/04) , v ORL (04/12)

CLB

0.50

54.04%

0.19%

2.87%

3.17%

5.97%

1.35%

3.12%

4.53%

5.23%

5.96%

6.67%

7.47%

7.17%

7.99%

4.55%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 4L -5 GD 1382(26)
Next: v CHI (03/21) , @ CLT (04/04) , @ MTL (04/11)

PHI

0.00

44.30%

0.09%

1.81%

2.33%

4.26%

0.69%

1.38%

2.22%

2.98%

3.63%

4.37%

5.03%

6.42%

6.86%

10.72%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 4W 0D 0L +13GD 1714(2)
Next: v S.J (03/21) , v POR (04/04) , v NYF (04/11)

VCR

102

3.00

95.15%

18.58%

5.50%

3.94%

9.62%

26.97%

19.49%

14.23%

10.76%

7.26%

6.23%

4.58%

3.28%

2.35%

0.00%

(Los Angeles FC) 4W 0D 0L +8 GD 1743(1)
Next: @ ATX (03/21) , v ORL (04/04) , @ POR (04/11)

LAF

102

3.00

96.79%

22.26%

6.29%

3.60%

9.34%

30.82%

19.89%

13.85%

10.20%

7.55%

5.57%

4.19%

2.80%

1.91%

0.01%

(San Diego FC) 3W 1D 0L +8 GD 1654(4)
Next: v RSL (03/22) , @ S.J (04/04) , v MIN (04/11)

S.D

100

2.50

90.18%

8.47%

5.42%

4.13%

9.58%

13.44%

14.99%

13.69%

11.90%

10.03%

8.27%

7.60%

5.73%

4.47%

0.06%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 3W 0D 1L +5 GD 1471(13)
Next: @ VCR (03/21) , v S.D (04/04) , @ SKC (04/11)

S.J

2.25

64.81%

1.25%

3.57%

3.39%

7.42%

2.64%

4.50%

6.20%

6.90%

8.30%

8.61%

9.17%

9.61%

8.13%

0.75%

(Seattle Sounders) 3W 0D 1L +3 GD 1640(6)
Next: @ MIN (03/22) , @ HOU (04/04) , v RSL (04/12)

SEA

2.25

89.13%

7.49%

4.99%

3.97%

8.86%

12.05%

14.50%

13.96%

12.03%

10.74%

8.52%

7.07%

5.37%

4.85%

0.04%

(Real Salt Lake) 3W 0D 1L +2 GD 1539(8)
Next: @ S.D (03/22) , v SKC (04/04) , @ SEA (04/12)

RSL

2.25

75.09%

2.88%

4.41%

3.92%

8.01%

4.70%

7.40%

9.33%

10.01%

9.61%

9.42%

8.72%

8.17%

7.40%

0.33%

(Colorado Rapids) 2W 0D 2L +1 GD 1469(14)
Next: @ SKC (03/21) , @ TOR (04/04) , v HOU (04/11)

COL

1.50

57.53%

0.78%

3.14%

3.34%

6.69%

1.62%

2.99%

4.59%

5.93%

7.04%

8.05%

7.50%

8.73%

9.25%

1.83%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 2W 0D 1L +0 GD 1480(12)
Next: @ DAL (03/21) , v SEA (04/04) , @ COL (04/11)

HOU

2.00

62.47%

1.13%

3.24%

3.26%

7.07%

2.22%

4.28%

6.05%

6.80%

8.01%

7.89%

8.62%

8.92%

8.22%

1.46%

(FC Dallas) 1W 2D 1L +0 GD 1495(11)
Next: v HOU (03/21) , @ DCU (04/04) , v STL (04/11)

DAL

1.25

58.71%

0.82%

3.74%

3.34%

7.10%

1.73%

3.71%

4.84%

6.13%

7.05%

8.05%

8.26%

8.61%

8.71%

1.62%

(LA Galaxy) 1W 1D 2L -1 GD 1406(24)
Next: @ POR (03/22) , v MIN (04/04) , @ ATX (04/11)

LAG

1.00

42.63%

0.39%

2.42%

2.30%

4.67%

0.75%

1.30%

1.90%

3.18%

4.16%

4.91%

6.35%

6.70%

7.86%

5.52%

(Austin FC) 1W 1D 2L -2 GD 1419(22)
Next: v LAF (03/21) , @ MIA (04/04) , v LAG (04/11)

ATX

1.00

42.44%

0.25%

2.34%

2.44%

4.94%

0.70%

1.40%

2.10%

3.17%

4.27%

5.09%

6.11%

7.12%

8.25%

4.23%

(Sporting Kansas City) 1W 1D 2L -3 GD 1350(29)
Next: v COL (03/21) , @ RSL (04/04) , v S.J (04/11)

SKC

1.00

36.41%

0.18%

1.70%

1.93%

3.24%

0.32%

0.67%

1.45%

2.00%

3.04%

3.66%

4.70%

5.32%

6.72%

8.53%

(Minnesota United FC) 1W 1D 2L -7 GD 1509(10)
Next: v SEA (03/22) , @ LAG (04/04) , @ S.D (04/11)

MIN

1.00

60.67%

0.71%

3.87%

3.13%

6.98%

1.70%

3.77%

5.53%

7.33%

7.37%

7.99%

8.12%

8.40%

8.63%

1.83%

(Portland Timbers) 1W 0D 3L -5 GD 1391(25)
Next: v LAG (03/22) , @ VCR (04/04) , v LAF (04/11)

POR

0.75

39.16%

0.12%

2.03%

2.19%

4.00%

0.26%

0.76%

1.50%

2.41%

3.46%

4.77%

5.37%

6.87%

7.27%

6.49%

(St. Louis City SC) 0W 1D 3L -5 GD 1337(30)
Next: v N.E (03/21) , @ NYF (04/04) , @ DAL (04/11)

STL

0.25

35.70%

0.03%

1.28%

1.18%

2.48%

0.08%

0.35%

0.78%

1.25%

2.11%

2.97%

3.64%

4.37%

5.98%

14.17%

Number of sims: 10000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 79.03
Wooden Spoon average points: 17.74
East winner average points: 73.61
West winner average points: 76.96
East 4th place average points: 57.30
West 4th place average points: 60.81
East average points to make playoffs: 42.06
West average points to make playoffs: 44.53


     POWER RANKINGS    Schedule Strength
 # Team Div  ELO  PPG  So Far  Remaining
 1  LAF   W 1743 3.00  1453.0    1506.9
 2  VCR   W 1714 3.00  1415.5    1495.2
 3  MIA E   1700 1.75  1623.8    1448.9
 4  S.D   W 1654 2.50  1387.7    1504.7
 5  NSH E   1643 2.50  1466.8    1466.0
 6  SEA   W 1640 2.25  1503.9    1481.5
 7  NYF E   1633 2.50  1420.0    1480.3
 8  RSL   W 1539 2.25  1537.4    1498.3
 9  CLT E   1514 1.25  1465.6    1459.5
10  MIN   W 1509 1.00  1603.0    1484.8
11  DAL   W 1495 1.25  1565.9    1495.7
12  HOU   W 1480 2.00  1423.5    1504.9
13  S.J   W 1471 2.25  1386.9    1514.2
14  COL   W 1469 1.50  1517.6    1507.5
15  NYR E   1457 1.75  1410.8    1493.6
16  CLB E   1437 0.50  1455.0    1469.1
17  CHI E   1436 1.00  1425.6    1487.2
18  CIN E   1436 0.75  1433.8    1500.3
19  N.E E   1427 1.00  1545.3    1469.9
20  TOR E   1424 1.00  1575.5    1463.4
21  ORL E   1423 0.75  1490.2    1491.2
22  ATX   W 1419 1.00  1494.1    1516.5
23  DCU E   1415 1.50  1484.4    1485.6
24  LAG   W 1406 1.00  1441.5    1513.7
25  POR   W 1391 0.75  1525.2    1506.1
26  PHI E   1382 0.00  1474.1    1485.3
27  ATL E   1376 0.75  1456.8    1474.4
28  MTL E   1370 0.75  1592.7    1477.0
29  SKC   W 1350 1.00  1492.2    1509.9
30  STL   W 1337 0.25  1637.7    1495.9

MLS Predictor as of March 8

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: One match N.E - HOU, was postponed this week, everyone else played their third of the season: March 7 Results: NYF 5-0 ORL, DCU 1-2 MIA, ATL 2-3 RSL, CLB 0-0 CHI, CLT 3-1 ATX, PHI 0-1 S.J, SKC 0-1 S.D, NSH 3-1 MIN, STL 0-1 SEA, COL 4-1 LAG, LAF 1-0 DAL, POR 1-4 VCR. March 8: NYR 0-3 MTL, CIN 0-1 TOR.

Summary: Below the standings now are power rankings based on the ELO ratings of the teams. Seven of the top ten are Western teams and seven of the bottom ten are Eastern teams. The chart also contains a strength of schedule thus far figure (home field advantage is 100 points for the purposes of this figure), and a strength of remaining schedule which varies little from the average of 1500, but will be more relevant as fewer games remain in the season. Other than the day one clash between MIA and LAFC, there have been few games between contenders thus far. Still early though: the sims have SKC the early favorite at nearly 19% to be last overall, but they still have a nearly 1% chance to win the MLS Cup!

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(New York City FC) 2W 1D 0L +6 GD ELO: 1612(5)
Next: v COL (03/14) , v MIA (03/22) , v STL (04/04)

NYF

100

2.33

88.83%

7.09%

4.60%

4.39%

9.29%

17.37%

15.56%

12.98%

10.13%

8.92%

7.36%

6.63%

5.43%

4.36%

0.09%

(Nashville SC) 2W 1D 0L +5 GD ELO: 1607(6)
Next: @ CLB (03/14) , v ORL (03/21) , @ CHI (04/04)

NSH

100

2.33

88.99%

6.98%

4.39%

4.60%

9.26%

17.42%

15.16%

12.85%

10.94%

9.07%

7.69%

6.35%

4.93%

4.39%

0.19%

(Inter Miami) 2W 0D 1L +0 GD ELO: 1708(2)
Next: @ CLT (03/14) , @ NYF (03/22) , v ATX (04/04)

MIA

2.00

95.25%

13.60%

5.63%

4.24%

9.31%

32.66%

19.02%

13.20%

9.71%

6.55%

4.88%

4.18%

2.82%

2.19%

0.04%

(New York Red Bulls) 2W 0D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1451(19)
Next: @ TOR (03/14) , @ CLT (03/21) , v CIN (04/04)

NYR

2.00

66.51%

1.18%

2.98%

4.09%

7.40%

4.38%

6.02%

6.79%

7.36%

8.55%

8.08%

7.90%

8.69%

7.37%

1.37%

(Chicago Fire) 1W 1D 1L +2 GD ELO: 1510(11)
Next: v DCU (03/14) , @ PHI (03/21) , v NSH (04/04)

CHI

1.33

72.15%

1.84%

3.40%

4.22%

8.29%

5.62%

7.43%

8.43%

9.01%

8.53%

8.68%

8.45%

7.64%

7.44%

0.92%

(Charlotte FC) 1W 1D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1505(12)
Next: v MIA (03/14) , v NYR (03/21) , v PHI (04/04)

CLT

1.33

71.64%

1.75%

3.48%

4.12%

7.72%

5.72%

7.59%

8.78%

8.75%

8.42%

8.10%

8.53%

7.42%

7.20%

1.13%

(FC Cincinnati) 1W 0D 2L +0 GD ELO: 1484(15)
Next: @ N.E (03/15) , v MTL (03/22) , @ NYR (04/04)

CIN

1.00

63.16%

1.06%

3.33%

4.16%

7.24%

3.63%

5.99%

6.39%

6.97%

7.62%

7.39%

7.92%

7.46%

7.51%

2.28%

(DC United) 1W 0D 2L -1 GD ELO: 1348(27)
Next: @ CHI (03/14) , @ ATL (03/21) , v DAL (04/04)

DCU

1.00

44.36%

0.21%

1.79%

2.61%

4.38%

0.94%

1.72%

2.77%

3.44%

4.37%

5.26%

6.06%

6.61%

7.39%

5.80%

(Toronto FC) 1W 0D 2L -3 GD ELO: 1430(21)
Next: v NYR (03/14) , v CLB (03/21) , v COL (04/04)

TOR

1.00

58.57%

0.62%

2.62%

3.46%

6.39%

2.96%

4.67%

5.29%

5.99%

6.90%

7.01%

6.96%

7.80%

7.99%

3.00%

(CF Montréal) 1W 0D 2L -5 GD ELO: 1399(24)
Next: @ ORL (03/14) , @ CIN (03/22) , @ N.E (04/04)

MTL

1.00

53.85%

0.34%

2.07%

3.26%

5.77%

1.92%

3.66%

4.24%

5.18%

6.44%

6.63%

6.79%

7.49%

7.58%

3.92%

(Columbus Crew) 0W 2D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1478(17)
Next: v NSH (03/14) , @ TOR (03/21) , @ ATL (04/04)

CLB

0.67

62.98%

0.70%

3.31%

3.87%

6.44%

3.12%

5.52%

6.78%

7.27%

7.32%

8.15%

7.37%

7.73%

7.61%

2.11%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 3L -3 GD ELO: 1424(22)
Next: @ ATL (03/14) , v CHI (03/21) , @ CLT (04/04)

PHI

0.00

51.19%

0.31%

2.69%

3.28%

5.53%

1.46%

2.32%

3.67%

4.64%

5.38%

6.27%

6.77%

7.20%

7.98%

5.50%

(New England Revolution) 0W 0D 2L -4 GD ELO: 1370(26)
Next: v CIN (03/15) , @ STL (03/21) , v MTL (04/04)

N.E

0.00

49.00%

0.37%

2.22%

2.72%

4.87%

1.48%

2.43%

3.28%

4.19%

4.38%

5.32%

5.70%

6.78%

7.18%

8.26%

(Atlanta United FC) 0W 0D 3L -5 GD ELO: 1327(29)
Next: v PHI (03/14) , v DCU (03/21) , v CLB (04/04)

ATL

0.00

41.65%

0.16%

1.38%

2.14%

3.67%

0.55%

1.22%

1.80%

2.55%

3.18%

4.22%

4.80%

5.38%

6.27%

11.68%

(Orlando City) 0W 0D 3L -8 GD ELO: 1390(25)
Next: v MTL (03/14) , @ NSH (03/21) , @ LAF (04/04)

ORL

0.00

45.84%

0.13%

2.24%

2.71%

4.44%

0.77%

1.69%

2.75%

3.87%

4.37%

4.96%

5.59%

6.62%

7.54%

7.68%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Diego FC) 3W 0D 0L +8 GD ELO: 1660(4)
Next: @ DAL (03/14) , v RSL (03/22) , @ S.J (04/04)

S.D

102

3.00

88.98%

11.51%

4.89%

4.19%

9.21%

17.81%

15.25%

12.63%

10.90%

8.75%

7.66%

6.75%

5.08%

4.10%

0.05%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 3W 0D 0L +7 GD ELO: 1695(3)
Next: v MIN (03/14) , v S.J (03/21) , v POR (04/04)

VCR

102

3.00

92.02%

15.77%

5.48%

4.22%

9.15%

22.72%

16.72%

13.49%

10.91%

8.51%

7.07%

5.14%

4.30%

3.11%

0.05%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 3W 0D 0L +6 GD ELO: 1519(9)
Next: v SEA (03/15) , @ VCR (03/21) , v S.D (04/04)

S.J

102

3.00

73.13%

3.58%

3.91%

3.65%

7.64%

6.16%

7.81%

8.26%

9.00%

8.86%

8.65%

8.70%

8.00%

7.29%

0.40%

(Los Angeles FC) 3W 0D 0L +6 GD ELO: 1737(1)
Next: v STL (03/14) , @ ATX (03/21) , v ORL (04/04)

LAF

102

3.00

95.15%

18.95%

6.35%

4.04%

9.74%

27.51%

19.67%

13.86%

10.40%

7.74%

6.19%

4.09%

3.17%

2.51%

0.01%

(Colorado Rapids) 2W 0D 1L +3 GD ELO: 1489(14)
Next: @ NYF (03/14) , @ SKC (03/21) , @ TOR (04/04)

COL

2.00

60.17%

1.62%

3.67%

3.23%

6.99%

2.80%

3.95%

5.54%

6.66%

6.86%

7.98%

8.52%

8.26%

8.55%

1.05%

(Seattle Sounders) 2W 0D 1L +2 GD ELO: 1598(7)
Next: @ S.J (03/15) , @ MIN (03/22) , @ HOU (04/04)

SEA

2.00

80.12%

4.53%

5.14%

3.91%

8.80%

7.79%

10.69%

10.17%

9.99%

10.14%

9.30%

8.03%

7.12%

6.68%

0.21%

(Real Salt Lake) 2W 0D 1L +1 GD ELO: 1514(10)
Next: v ATX (03/14) , @ S.D (03/22) , v SKC (04/04)

RSL

2.00

67.25%

2.17%

3.84%

3.48%

7.51%

3.69%

5.87%

7.48%

7.51%

8.78%

8.12%

8.05%

8.37%

8.55%

0.83%

(LA Galaxy) 1W 1D 1L +0 GD ELO: 1483(16)
Next: v SKC (03/14) , @ POR (03/22) , v MIN (04/04)

LAG

1.33

56.39%

1.08%

3.35%

3.10%

6.47%

2.42%

3.46%

4.73%

6.05%

6.52%

6.83%

7.94%

8.38%

8.16%

1.90%

(FC Dallas) 1W 1D 1L +0 GD ELO: 1489(13)
Next: v S.D (03/14) , v HOU (03/21) , @ DCU (04/04)

DAL

1.33

58.18%

1.20%

3.07%

3.04%

7.00%

2.36%

4.08%

5.10%

5.66%

6.60%

7.10%

7.91%

8.78%

8.97%

1.62%

(Minnesota United FC) 1W 1D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1527(8)
Next: @ VCR (03/14) , v SEA (03/22) , @ LAG (04/04)

MIN

1.33

64.81%

1.60%

3.85%

3.53%

7.01%

3.19%

5.07%

7.07%

7.48%

7.71%

8.15%

8.65%

8.58%

7.98%

0.93%

(Austin FC) 1W 1D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1441(20)
Next: @ RSL (03/14) , v LAF (03/21) , @ MIA (04/04)

ATX

1.33

47.21%

0.50%

3.09%

2.52%

5.38%

1.09%

2.07%

3.17%

4.16%

5.35%

6.42%

6.26%

7.33%

8.34%

3.02%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 1W 0D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1452(18)
Next: v POR (03/14) , @ DAL (03/21) , v SEA (04/04)

HOU

1.50

52.59%

0.80%

2.80%

2.78%

5.99%

1.68%

3.14%

4.35%

5.42%

6.16%

6.20%

7.19%

7.79%

8.07%

2.59%

(Portland Timbers) 1W 0D 2L -4 GD ELO: 1416(23)
Next: @ HOU (03/14) , v LAG (03/22) , @ VCR (04/04)

POR

1.00

43.16%

0.26%

1.96%

2.35%

4.45%

0.48%

1.39%

2.66%

3.38%

4.45%

5.29%

6.56%

7.18%

7.92%

3.85%

(St. Louis City SC) 0W 1D 2L -3 GD ELO: 1342(28)
Next: @ LAF (03/14) , v N.E (03/21) , @ NYF (04/04)

STL

0.33

34.09%

0.06%

1.53%

1.37%

2.88%

0.19%

0.60%

0.99%

1.58%

2.47%

3.18%

3.75%

4.76%

5.77%

10.80%

(Sporting Kansas City) 0W 1D 2L -4 GD ELO: 1279(30)
Next: @ LAG (03/14) , v COL (03/21) , @ RSL (04/04)

SKC

0.33

32.78%

0.03%

0.94%

0.72%

1.78%

0.11%

0.23%

0.50%

0.90%

1.10%

1.86%

2.46%

2.90%

4.00%

18.72%

Number of sims: 10000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 78.56
Wooden Spoon average points: 16.82
East winner average points: 73.41
West winner average points: 76.44
East 4th place average points: 57.52
West 4th place average points: 60.76
East average points to make playoffs: 42.17
West average points to make playoffs: 44.88

MLS Predictor as of March 1

Scroll down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: Once again, everyone plays a match on weekend number two: February 28 Results: CHI 3-0 MTL, NYR 1-0 N.E, MIN 1-0 CIN, COL 2-0 POR, RSL 2-1 SEA, S.J 2-0 ATL, HOU 0-2 LAF, DAL 0-0 NSH, SKC 2-2 CLB, VCR 3-0 TOR, LAG 3-0 CLT. March 1: ATX 1-0 DCU, PHI 1-2 NYF, ORL 2-4 MIA, S.D 2-0 STL

Summary: The West continued dominating in week two. Every team in the West has at least one point in their first two, six Eastern teams have no points after two games. Already the expected points for West positions are more than two points higher than the corresponding East spots. Before we all decide that Michael Bradley's true calling is as an MLS coach, let's recognize that the league has given him and Red Bulls five starting matches most teams would kill for: @ORL, vN.E, vMTL, @TOR, @CLT, none of these exactly world beaters. Red Bulls, the only undefeated Eastern team, should be at or near the top of the East until at least May with this start. But, there are lots of matches yet to be played.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(New York Red Bulls) 2W 0D 0L +2 GD ELO: 1542
Next: v MTL (03/08) , @ TOR (03/14) , @ CLT (03/21)

NYR

102

3.00

81.43%

5.38%

3.87%

4.31%

8.42%

12.55%

11.92%

10.94%

9.27%

8.91%

8.33%

6.95%

6.26%

5.83%

0.47%

(Nashville SC) 1W 1D 0L +3 GD ELO: 1573
Next: v MIN (03/07) , @ CLB (03/14) , v ORL (03/21)

NSH

100

2.00

81.89%

5.39%

3.65%

4.22%

8.77%

12.27%

11.92%

11.10%

10.00%

8.77%

8.10%

7.27%

6.32%

5.57%

0.57%

(New York City FC) 1W 1D 0L +1 GD ELO: 1594
Next: v ORL (03/07) , v COL (03/14) , v MIA (03/22)

NYF

100

2.00

83.89%

6.13%

4.19%

4.91%

8.94%

13.78%

12.32%

11.19%

10.75%

9.11%

7.94%

7.20%

5.89%

5.44%

0.27%

(Chicago Fire) 1W 0D 1L +2 GD ELO: 1504
Next: @ CLB (03/07) , v DCU (03/14) , @ PHI (03/21)

CHI

1.50

70.33%

2.26%

3.35%

3.83%

7.64%

6.23%

7.64%

7.81%

8.43%

8.25%

8.08%

8.43%

7.40%

6.86%

1.20%

(FC Cincinnati) 1W 0D 1L +1 GD ELO: 1560
Next: v TOR (03/08) , @ N.E (03/15) , v MTL (03/22)

CIN

1.50

77.76%

3.83%

4.35%

4.97%

8.62%

9.50%

10.14%

9.65%

9.84%

9.29%

8.12%

7.16%

6.86%

6.65%

0.55%

(DC United) 1W 0D 1L +0 GD ELO: 1368
Next: v MIA (03/07) , @ CHI (03/14) , @ ATL (03/21)

DCU

1.50

49.78%

0.38%

2.19%

2.96%

4.94%

1.74%

2.73%

3.28%

4.34%

5.06%

6.14%

6.19%

7.44%

8.06%

4.80%

(Inter Miami) 1W 0D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1690
Next: @ DCU (03/07) , @ CLT (03/14) , @ NYF (03/22)

MIA

1.50

92.36%

11.94%

5.47%

4.62%

8.86%

26.38%

16.46%

12.77%

9.77%

8.11%

6.57%

4.94%

4.02%

3.22%

0.12%

(Columbus Crew) 0W 1D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1485
Next: v CHI (03/07) , v NSH (03/14) , @ TOR (03/21)

CLB

0.50

64.46%

1.56%

3.19%

3.86%

6.92%

4.55%

5.59%

6.85%

6.90%

7.27%

7.44%

7.73%

7.83%

7.81%

2.49%

(Charlotte FC) 0W 1D 1L -3 GD ELO: 1469
Next: v ATX (03/07) , v MIA (03/14) , v NYR (03/21)

CLT

0.50

62.53%

1.19%

3.08%

3.94%

7.08%

3.67%

5.23%

6.00%

6.81%

7.51%

7.00%

8.14%

7.92%

7.52%

2.73%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 2L -2 GD ELO: 1484
Next: v S.J (03/07) , @ ATL (03/14) , v CHI (03/21)

PHI

0.00

63.25%

1.09%

3.06%

4.18%

7.11%

3.62%

5.56%

6.03%

6.77%

7.17%

7.36%

7.81%

8.15%

8.06%

2.72%

(Orlando City) 0W 0D 2L -3 GD ELO: 1406
Next: @ NYF (03/07) , v MTL (03/14) , @ NSH (03/21)

ORL

0.00

49.41%

0.32%

2.34%

2.64%

5.13%

1.21%

2.44%

3.55%

4.32%

4.55%

5.98%

6.25%

7.01%

7.95%

6.15%

(Toronto FC) 0W 0D 2L -4 GD ELO: 1360
Next: @ CIN (03/08) , v NYR (03/14) , v CLB (03/21)

TOR

0.00

46.73%

0.30%

1.96%

2.48%

4.61%

1.28%

2.07%

2.81%

3.26%

4.21%

4.82%

5.71%

6.75%

6.80%

9.02%

(New England Revolution) 0W 0D 2L -4 GD ELO: 1370
Next: v HOU (03/07) , v CIN (03/15) , @ STL (03/21)

N.E

0.00

47.77%

0.32%

1.87%

2.53%

4.71%

1.31%

2.22%

3.39%

3.52%

4.30%

5.20%

6.07%

6.26%

6.96%

8.54%

(Atlanta United FC) 0W 0D 2L -4 GD ELO: 1371
Next: v RSL (03/07) , v PHI (03/14) , v DCU (03/21)

ATL

0.00

47.32%

0.31%

1.94%

2.53%

4.78%

1.38%

2.47%

3.12%

3.79%

4.22%

5.07%

5.86%

6.50%

7.26%

7.65%

(CF Montréal) 0W 0D 2L -8 GD ELO: 1316
Next: @ NYR (03/08) , @ ORL (03/14) , @ CIN (03/22)

MTL

0.00

41.60%

0.15%

1.49%

2.02%

3.47%

0.53%

1.29%

1.51%

2.23%

3.27%

3.85%

4.29%

5.39%

6.01%

13.23%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Diego FC) 2W 0D 0L +7 GD ELO: 1643
Next: @ SKC (03/07) , @ DAL (03/14) , v RSL (03/22)

S.D

102

3.00

85.71%

9.39%

5.42%

3.79%

8.96%

14.81%

13.83%

12.08%

10.67%

8.80%

7.60%

6.80%

6.04%

4.97%

0.11%

(Los Angeles FC) 2W 0D 0L +5 GD ELO: 1725
Next: v DAL (03/07) , v STL (03/14) , @ ATX (03/21)

LAF

102

3.00

92.67%

18.08%

6.33%

4.42%

9.09%

27.39%

17.27%

12.39%

9.54%

8.27%

6.20%

4.44%

3.73%

3.43%

0.01%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 2W 0D 0L +5 GD ELO: 1467
Next: @ PHI (03/07) , v SEA (03/15) , @ VCR (03/21)

S.J

102

3.00

60.42%

2.28%

3.00%

3.14%

6.55%

4.49%

5.18%

5.55%

6.51%

7.05%

7.63%

7.30%

7.66%

7.86%

1.19%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 2W 0D 0L +4 GD ELO: 1663
Next: @ POR (03/07) , v MIN (03/14) , v S.J (03/21)

VCR

102

3.00

87.80%

11.88%

5.19%

4.27%

9.17%

18.61%

15.02%

12.16%

10.70%

8.44%

7.24%

6.17%

5.16%

4.25%

0.05%

(LA Galaxy) 1W 1D 0L +3 GD ELO: 1526
Next: @ COL (03/07) , v SKC (03/14) , @ POR (03/22)

LAG

100

2.00

67.30%

2.72%

3.68%

3.65%

7.57%

5.26%

6.56%

7.66%

7.71%

8.12%

8.25%

7.40%

7.82%

7.47%

1.05%

(FC Dallas) 1W 1D 0L +1 GD ELO: 1500
Next: @ LAF (03/07) , v S.D (03/14) , v HOU (03/21)

DAL

100

2.00

61.02%

1.86%

3.67%

3.49%

6.71%

3.80%

5.23%

6.35%

6.59%

7.29%

7.24%

7.66%

7.72%

7.89%

1.25%

(Austin FC) 1W 1D 0L +1 GD ELO: 1473
Next: @ CLT (03/07) , @ RSL (03/14) , v LAF (03/21)

ATX

100

2.00

55.80%

1.38%

3.16%

2.92%

6.46%

2.77%

4.14%

4.81%

5.69%

6.30%

7.03%

7.56%

8.02%

7.65%

1.83%

(Minnesota United FC) 1W 1D 0L +1 GD ELO: 1556
Next: @ NSH (03/07) , @ VCR (03/14) , v SEA (03/22)

MIN

100

2.00

71.86%

3.63%

4.03%

3.45%

8.35%

6.60%

7.97%

8.46%

8.62%

8.22%

8.16%

8.47%

7.72%

6.87%

0.77%

(Seattle Sounders) 1W 0D 1L +1 GD ELO: 1569
Next: @ STL (03/07) , @ S.J (03/15) , @ MIN (03/22)

SEA

1.50

72.38%

3.67%

4.56%

3.53%

7.49%

6.44%

8.32%

8.43%

9.00%

8.35%

8.50%

7.91%

7.67%

7.02%

0.74%

(Colorado Rapids) 1W 0D 1L +0 GD ELO: 1438
Next: v LAG (03/07) , @ NYF (03/14) , @ SKC (03/21)

COL

1.50

50.68%

0.88%

2.87%

2.57%

5.73%

1.93%

3.02%

4.34%

4.91%

5.72%

6.47%

6.62%

6.96%

7.96%

2.75%

(Real Salt Lake) 1W 0D 1L +0 GD ELO: 1476
Next: @ ATL (03/07) , v ATX (03/14) , @ S.D (03/22)

RSL

1.50

56.97%

1.37%

3.14%

2.90%

6.57%

2.65%

4.35%

5.74%

6.21%

6.80%

6.92%

7.50%

7.19%

7.70%

1.91%

(Portland Timbers) 1W 0D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1453
Next: v VCR (03/07) , @ HOU (03/14) , v LAG (03/22)

POR

1.50

52.66%

0.85%

3.07%

2.48%

5.95%

2.17%

3.36%

4.48%

5.25%

5.99%

6.53%

7.04%

7.49%

7.52%

2.83%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 1W 0D 1L -1 GD ELO: 1452
Next: @ N.E (03/07) , v POR (03/14) , @ DAL (03/21)

HOU

1.50

52.65%

1.14%

2.87%

2.62%

5.53%

2.28%

3.72%

4.45%

5.13%

5.79%

6.09%

7.16%

7.52%

7.66%

2.85%

(St. Louis City SC) 0W 1D 1L -2 GD ELO: 1375
Next: v SEA (03/07) , @ LAF (03/14) , v N.E (03/21)

STL

0.50

38.72%

0.25%

1.81%

3.74%

0.56%

1.40%

2.13%

2.29%

3.32%

3.84%

5.03%

5.63%

6.92%

7.60%

(Sporting Kansas City) 0W 1D 1L -3 GD ELO: 1296
Next: v S.D (03/07) , @ LAG (03/14) , v COL (03/21)

SKC

0.50

32.85%

0.07%

1.20%

0.96%

2.13%

0.24%

0.63%

0.97%

1.18%

1.54%

2.30%

2.94%

3.67%

4.83%

14.55%

Number of sims: 10000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.81
Wooden Spoon average points: 16.89
East winner average points: 73.20
West winner average points: 75.35
East 4th place average points: 57.79
West 4th place average points: 59.95
East average points to make playoffs: 42.42
West average points to make playoffs: 44.75

MLS Predictor as of February 22

Scroll up and down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

Latest results added: Everyone played on opening weekend, February 21-22. Results: STL 1-1 CLT, CIN 2-0 ATL, VCR 1-0 RSL, ORL 1-2 NYR, DCU 1-0 PHI, DAL 3-2 TOR, HOU 2-1 CHI, NSH 4-1 N.E, ATX 2-2 MIN, LAF 3-0 MIA, S.J 3-0 SKC, POR 3-2 CLB, S.D 5-0 MTL, LAG 1-1 NYF, SEA 2-0 COL.

Summary: The West is going to be a rough ride this year. Western teams went 5W 2D 0L against Eastern teams on opening weekend, and Vancouver's 1-nil win over RSL, thanks to the explosion of goals elsewhere, puts them....eighth after the goal difference tie-breaker. Top-ranked MIA traveled to second-ranked LAFC and lost 3-nil, leaving Miami atop the East but now behind LAFC and VCR. But, it is still awfully early on. Anyone can finish anywhere.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Nashville SC) 1W 0D 0L +3GD ELO: 1571
Next: @ DAL (02/28) , v MIN (03/07) , @ CLB (03/14)

NSH

102

3.00

79.68%

6.08%

3.95%

3.96%

8.60%

13.27%

11.30%

9.87%

8.81%

8.70%

7.96%

6.79%

6.37%

5.97%

0.64%

(FC Cincinnati) 1W 0D 0L +2GD ELO: 1598
Next: @ MIN (02/28) , v TOR (03/08) , @ N.E (03/15)

CIN

102

3.00

81.87%

7.15%

4.62%

4.13%

9.11%

14.81%

11.78%

10.87%

9.28%

8.46%

7.86%

6.68%

6.27%

5.57%

0.29%

(New York Red Bulls) 1W 0D 0L +1GD ELO: 1524
Next: v N.E (02/28) , v MTL (03/08) , @ TOR (03/14)

NYR

102

3.00

73.76%

4.02%

3.71%

4.18%

7.63%

9.01%

9.03%

9.17%

8.89%

8.05%

7.94%

7.36%

6.80%

6.72%

0.79%

(DC United) 1W 0D 0L +1GD ELO: 1391
Next: @ ATX (03/01) , v MIA (03/07) , @ CHI (03/14)

DCU

102

3.00

51.63%

0.88%

2.25%

2.96%

5.18%

2.60%

3.42%

4.31%

4.96%

5.55%

6.24%

6.42%

7.11%

7.16%

3.86%

(Charlotte FC) 0W 1D 0L +0GD ELO: 1503
Next: @ LAG (02/28) , v ATX (03/07) , v MIA (03/14)

CLT

100

1.00

67.14%

2.59%

3.43%

3.97%

7.58%

6.64%

6.92%

7.68%

8.15%

7.44%

7.46%

7.35%

7.21%

6.40%

1.89%

(New York City FC) 0W 1D 0L +0GD ELO: 1544
Next: @ PHI (03/01) , v ORL (03/07) , v COL (03/14)

NYF

100

1.00

72.50%

3.24%

3.96%

4.28%

7.55%

8.39%

8.71%

7.94%

8.43%

7.43%

7.38%

7.33%

7.24%

1.22%

(Toronto FC) 0W 0D 1L -1GD ELO: 1370
Next: @ VCR (02/28) , @ CIN (03/08) , v NYR (03/14)

TOR

0.00

45.92%

0.38%

1.93%

2.29%

4.67%

1.54%

2.61%

2.94%

3.50%

4.52%

5.06%

5.41%

6.32%

6.94%

7.08%

(Columbus Crew) 0W 0D 1L -1GD ELO: 1494
Next: @ SKC (02/28) , v CHI (03/07) , v NSH (03/14)

CLB

0.00

64.77%

1.86%

3.17%

3.55%

7.00%

5.44%

6.36%

6.91%

7.07%

7.36%

7.18%

7.82%

7.60%

6.89%

2.14%

(Chicago Fire) 0W 0D 1L -1GD ELO: 1484
Next: v MTL (02/28) , @ CLB (03/07) , v DCU (03/14)

CHI

0.00

61.49%

1.74%

3.45%

3.37%

6.88%

4.62%

5.58%

5.99%

6.50%

7.18%

8.07%

7.51%

7.19%

2.35%

(Orlando City) 0W 0D 1L -1GD ELO: 1439
Next: v MIA (03/01) , @ NYF (03/07) , v MTL (03/14)

ORL

0.00

53.22%

0.65%

3.07%

2.87%

6.23%

2.13%

3.66%

4.24%

4.91%

5.55%

6.29%

6.91%

7.11%

7.97%

4.45%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 1L -1GD ELO: 1541
Next: v NYF (03/01) , v S.J (03/07) , @ ATL (03/14)

PHI

0.00

70.90%

3.10%

4.06%

3.89%

7.79%

7.71%

8.05%

8.62%

7.95%

7.99%

8.06%

7.06%

6.95%

7.11%

1.40%

(Atlanta United FC) 0W 0D 1L -2GD ELO: 1399
Next: @ S.J (02/28) , v RSL (03/07) , v PHI (03/14)

ATL

0.00

49.17%

0.68%

2.03%

2.56%

4.61%

2.05%

3.08%

3.88%

4.74%

5.05%

5.30%

5.74%

6.31%

7.30%

5.72%

(New England Revolution) 0W 0D 1L -3GD ELO: 1386
Next: @ NYR (02/28) , v HOU (03/07) , v CIN (03/15)

N.E

0.00

48.56%

0.63%

2.23%

2.57%

4.90%

1.91%

2.97%

3.49%

3.95%

4.64%

4.94%

5.91%

6.35%

7.01%

7.39%

(Inter Miami) 0W 0D 1L -3GD ELO: 1662
Next: @ ORL (03/01) , @ DCU (03/07) , @ CLT (03/14)

MIA

0.00

87.13%

8.41%

5.00%

4.55%

8.53%

18.85%

14.93%

11.92%

10.06%

8.17%

7.13%

6.04%

5.32%

4.31%

0.40%

(CF Montréal) 0W 0D 1L -5GD ELO: 1334
Next: @ CHI (02/28) , @ NYR (03/08) , @ ORL (03/14)

MTL

0.00

41.90%

0.35%

1.79%

2.22%

3.74%

1.03%

1.60%

2.17%

2.80%

3.59%

3.97%

5.06%

5.44%

6.22%

10.02%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(San Diego FC) 1W 0D 0L +5GD ELO: 1631
Next: v STL (03/01) , @ SKC (03/07) , @ DAL (03/14)

S.D

102

3.00

83.50%

8.85%

5.03%

4.20%

8.96%

14.25%

12.69%

11.32%

9.67%

9.28%

7.48%

6.94%

5.92%

5.61%

0.34%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 1W 0D 0L +3GD ELO: 1435
Next: v ATL (02/28) , @ PHI (03/07) , v SEA (03/15)

S.J

102

3.00

55.61%

1.30%

2.54%

2.93%

5.69%

2.82%

3.75%

5.08%

5.78%

5.91%

7.01%

6.89%

7.41%

8.33%

2.63%

(Los Angeles FC) 1W 0D 0L +3GD ELO: 1695
Next: @ HOU (02/28) , v DAL (03/07) , v STL (03/14)

LAF

102

3.00

90.57%

13.77%

5.60%

4.28%

9.20%

21.72%

16.22%

12.30%

10.45%

8.53%

6.82%

5.72%

4.76%

3.98%

0.07%

(Seattle Sounders) 1W 0D 0L +2GD ELO: 1620
Next: @ RSL (02/28) , @ STL (03/07) , @ S.J (03/15)

SEA

102

3.00

83.84%

8.39%

4.98%

4.09%

8.52%

14.19%

12.12%

11.57%

10.24%

8.95%

7.89%

7.26%

5.74%

5.55%

0.33%

(FC Dallas) 1W 0D 0L +1GD ELO: 1503
Next: v NSH (02/28) , @ LAF (03/07) , v S.D (03/14)

DAL

102

3.00

66.69%

3.09%

3.27%

3.57%

7.72%

5.74%

6.51%

7.30%

7.87%

7.71%

7.96%

8.01%

6.89%

1.40%

(Portland Timbers) 1W 0D 0L +1GD ELO: 1497
Next: @ COL (02/28) , v VCR (03/07) , @ HOU (03/14)

POR

102

3.00

66.14%

2.43%

3.69%

3.73%

7.55%

4.79%

6.32%

6.97%

7.19%

7.54%

7.99%

8.18%

7.80%

7.89%

1.47%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 1W 0D 0L +1GD ELO: 1487
Next: v LAF (02/28) , @ N.E (03/07) , v POR (03/14)

HOU

102

3.00

64.14%

2.61%

3.14%

3.48%

7.26%

4.81%

6.30%

6.81%

7.10%

7.57%

7.92%

7.42%

7.50%

6.89%

1.82%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 1W 0D 0L +1GD ELO: 1653
Next: v TOR (02/28) , @ POR (03/07) , v MIN (03/14)

VCR

102

3.00

86.93%

10.21%

5.39%

4.11%

9.31%

16.68%

14.19%

12.27%

10.47%

8.48%

7.80%

6.62%

5.55%

4.75%

0.12%

(Austin FC) 0W 1D 0L +0GD ELO: 1447
Next: v DCU (03/01) , @ CLT (03/07) , @ RSL (03/14)

ATX

100

1.00

52.83%

1.01%

2.89%

2.74%

5.66%

2.12%

3.22%

4.13%

4.90%

5.62%

6.26%

7.07%

7.86%

8.04%

3.61%

(Minnesota United FC) 0W 1D 0L +0GD ELO: 1513
Next: v CIN (02/28) , @ NSH (03/07) , @ VCR (03/14)

MIN

100

1.00

65.07%

2.34%

3.75%

3.78%

7.23%

4.42%

6.28%

6.97%

7.77%

7.55%

7.94%

7.57%

7.88%

1.72%

(LA Galaxy) 0W 1D 0L +0GD ELO: 1486
Next: v CLT (02/28) , @ COL (03/07) , v SKC (03/14)

LAG

100

1.00

60.08%

1.95%

2.92%

3.32%

6.39%

3.64%

5.05%

5.39%

6.44%

6.93%

7.31%

7.54%

7.75%

7.81%

2.22%

(St. Louis City SC) 0W 1D 0L +0GD ELO: 1387
Next: @ S.D (03/01) , v SEA (03/07) , @ LAF (03/14)

STL

100

1.00

45.14%

0.60%

2.49%

2.28%

4.62%

1.33%

2.12%

2.90%

3.71%

4.50%

4.98%

5.61%

6.58%

7.42%

5.99%

(Real Salt Lake) 0W 0D 1L -1GD ELO: 1418
Next: v SEA (02/28) , @ ATL (03/07) , v ATX (03/14)

RSL

0.00

48.57%

0.91%

2.57%

2.85%

5.05%

1.92%

2.64%

3.34%

4.54%

4.97%

5.52%

5.88%

6.68%

7.59%

5.49%

(Colorado Rapids) 0W 0D 1L -2GD ELO: 1386
Next: v POR (02/28) , v LAG (03/07) , @ NYF (03/14)

COL

0.00

44.45%

0.60%

2.02%

2.01%

4.40%

1.24%

2.03%

2.65%

3.70%

3.93%

5.13%

5.74%

6.63%

6.49%

6.91%

(Sporting Kansas City) 0W 0D 1L -3GD ELO: 1287
Next: v CLB (02/28) , v S.D (03/07) , @ LAG (03/14)

SKC

0.00

36.80%

0.18%

1.07%

1.28%

2.44%

0.33%

0.56%

1.00%

1.54%

2.15%

2.63%

3.23%

4.24%

4.88%

16.24%

Number of sims: 10000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.61
Wooden Spoon average points: 16.86
East winner average points: 73.18
West winner average points: 75.03
East 4th place average points: 58.21
West 4th place average points: 59.61
East average points to make playoffs: 43.10
West average points to make playoffs: 43.93

MLS Predictor as of February 20

Scroll up and down to compare with the most recent run and see which direction teams are headed.

0.00% may mean there were some sims that got the result, but not enough to round to 0.01%.

PRE-SEASON VERSION: The starting ELO ratings are taken from an online averaging of power rankings from six different sites online, with Inter Miami at the top at 1700 and last year's Wooden Spoon winners, Sporting KC, lowest at 1310. This gives SKC about a 15% chance to beat MIA at home and a 5% chance on the road. As results come in, the ELO ratings of teams will change based on results and as the remaining matches are simulated, the ELO ratings for that sim will also change. As we get further on in the season, we'll simulate the fewer unplayed games more times.

Summary: Anyone can finish anywhere, this will be the case for at least the first third of the season, until the levels of the teams settle in and match the standings. The order of the teams all tied at zero points so far is based on their pre-season ELO rating. Some anomalies are explained by the unbalanced schedule: Columbus slightly more likely to finish in the playoffs than higher-rated NYCFC, for example. Probably Columbus has a slightly easier schedule: or it could be just random fluctuation. Same for Houston and Austin in the West.

EASTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Inter Miami) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1700
Next: @ LAF (02/21) , @ ORL (03/01) , @ DCU (03/07)

MIA

102

—

89.96%

13.76%

5.43%

4.30%

9.53%

23.57%

15.82%

12.16%

9.80%

8.13%

7.05%

5.28%

4.60%

3.39%

0.16%

(Philadelphia Union) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1600
Next: @ DCU (02/21) , v NYF (03/01) , v S.J (03/07)

PHI

102

—

78.89%

6.23%

4.31%

3.72%

7.95%

11.86%

11.29%

9.95%

9.31%

8.53%

7.64%

7.35%

6.50%

5.75%

0.71%

(FC Cincinnati) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1580
Next: v ATL (02/21) , @ MIN (02/28) , v TOR (03/08)

CIN

102

—

75.02%

5.33%

4.56%

3.95%

8.60%

10.22%

9.23%

9.15%

9.14%

8.19%

8.42%

7.22%

6.66%

6.12%

0.67%

(Nashville SC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1550
Next: v N.E (02/21) , @ DAL (02/28) , v MIN (03/07)

NSH

102

—

73.00%

4.20%

3.82%

4.08%

7.98%

8.38%

9.46%

8.57%

8.23%

7.76%

7.96%

7.39%

6.96%

7.07%

1.22%

(New York City FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1540
Next: @ LAG (02/22) , @ PHI (03/01) , v ORL (03/07)

NYF

102

—

69.19%

3.38%

3.42%

4.09%

7.30%

6.98%

7.62%

8.02%

7.93%

7.86%

7.10%

7.74%

7.11%

7.33%

1.50%

(Columbus Crew) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1530
Next: @ POR (02/21) , @ SKC (02/28) , v CHI (03/07)

CLB

102

—

70.27%

3.91%

3.39%

4.05%

7.68%

7.99%

7.90%

8.36%

7.82%

7.63%

7.81%

7.28%

7.19%

6.79%

1.50%

(Chicago Fire) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1520
Next: @ HOU (02/21) , v MTL (02/28) , @ CLB (03/07)

CHI

102

—

68.48%

3.08%

3.78%

3.65%

6.68%

6.41%

7.56%

7.96%

7.53%

7.74%

7.27%

8.01%

6.99%

7.48%

1.53%

(Charlotte FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1505
Next: @ STL (02/21) , @ LAG (02/28) , v ATX (03/07)

CLT

102

—

65.54%

3.01%

3.40%

3.41%

7.38%

6.25%

6.95%

6.74%

7.24%

7.19%

7.20%

7.42%

7.51%

6.80%

2.24%

(Orlando City) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1500
Next: v NYR (02/21) , v MIA (03/01) , @ NYF (03/07)

ORL

102

—

64.77%

2.30%

3.49%

3.72%

7.38%

5.25%

5.91%

7.39%

7.11%

7.47%

7.60%

7.53%

7.34%

7.13%

2.04%

(New York Red Bulls) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1470
Next: @ ORL (02/21) , v N.E (02/28) , v MTL (03/08)

NYR

102

—

60.34%

1.82%

2.97%

3.37%

6.74%

4.03%

5.22%

6.16%

6.17%

7.25%

6.82%

6.79%

7.48%

7.43%

2.99%

(Atlanta United FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1415
Next: @ CIN (02/21) , @ S.J (02/28) , v RSL (03/07)

ATL

102

—

51.47%

1.26%

2.50%

2.56%

5.42%

2.82%

3.67%

4.00%

4.81%

5.27%

5.77%

6.67%

7.23%

6.86%

4.37%

(New England Revolution) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1405
Next: @ NSH (02/21) , @ NYR (02/28) , v HOU (03/07)

N.E

102

—

50.90%

1.01%

2.98%

2.78%

4.91%

2.38%

3.36%

3.59%

4.92%

5.20%

5.88%

5.75%

7.07%

7.18%

5.57%

(Toronto FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1390
Next: @ DAL (02/21) , @ VCR (02/28) , @ CIN (03/08)

TOR

102

—

48.15%

0.72%

2.41%

2.31%

4.82%

1.76%

2.78%

3.64%

4.21%

4.80%

5.20%

5.92%

6.55%

7.50%

5.79%

(CF Montréal) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1345
Next: @ S.D (02/21) , @ CHI (02/28) , @ NYR (03/08)

MTL

102

—

42.48%

0.48%

1.98%

2.07%

3.66%

1.33%

1.75%

2.43%

2.82%

3.70%

4.28%

5.03%

5.61%

6.74%

8.79%

(DC United) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1325
Next: v PHI (02/21) , @ ATX (03/01) , v MIA (03/07)

DCU

102

—

40.77%

0.32%

1.62%

1.88%

3.97%

0.77%

1.48%

1.88%

2.96%

3.28%

4.00%

4.62%

5.20%

6.43%

10.15%

WESTERN
(Full name) - Record - ELO / Games Coming Up TEAM

Points
So Far

Max
Points

Avg.
Points

Make
Playoffs

Supp.
Shield

MLSCup
Winner

MLSCup
Loser

Semi
Loser

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Wooden
Spoon

(Los Angeles FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1650
Next: v MIA (02/21) , @ HOU (02/28) , v DAL (03/07)

LAF

102

—

85.76%

9.79%

5.33%

4.46%

8.61%

17.79%

13.73%

11.34%

9.60%

8.76%

7.25%

6.29%

5.79%

4.84%

0.37%

(Vancouver Whitecaps FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1640
Next: v RSL (02/21) , v TOR (02/28) , @ POR (03/07)

VCR

102

—

85.62%

8.76%

5.05%

4.35%

9.30%

16.99%

13.86%

11.39%

9.95%

8.37%

7.60%

6.58%

5.64%

4.83%

0.41%

(San Diego FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1620
Next: v MTL (02/21) , v STL (03/01) , @ SKC (03/07)

S.D

102

—

81.94%

7.06%

4.47%

4.39%

9.12%

13.30%

12.22%

11.11%

9.69%

8.61%

7.99%

6.82%

5.96%

5.76%

0.48%

(Seattle Sounders) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1605
Next: v COL (02/22) , @ RSL (02/28) , @ STL (03/07)

SEA

102

—

80.57%

6.57%

4.92%

3.91%

8.50%

13.32%

11.62%

10.55%

9.26%

8.36%

7.61%

7.33%

6.14%

5.66%

0.72%

(Minnesota United FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1510
Next: @ ATX (02/21) , v CIN (02/28) , @ NSH (03/07)

MIN

102

—

66.90%

2.96%

3.42%

3.54%

7.37%

6.23%

7.11%

7.28%

7.85%

7.92%

7.74%

7.02%

6.82%

6.97%

1.96%

(LA Galaxy) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1490
Next: v NYF (02/22) , v CLT (02/28) , @ COL (03/07)

LAG

102

—

65.12%

2.85%

3.59%

3.50%

6.99%

6.02%

6.47%

6.98%

7.44%

7.53%

7.22%

7.18%

6.97%

2.33%

(FC Dallas) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1480
Next: v TOR (02/21) , v NSH (02/28) , @ LAF (03/07)

DAL

102

—

63.28%

2.44%

3.19%

3.72%

6.67%

5.28%

6.10%

6.41%

6.81%

7.39%

7.28%

7.32%

7.09%

7.14%

2.46%

(Portland Timbers) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1455
Next: v CLB (02/21) , @ COL (02/28) , v VCR (03/07)

POR

102

—

59.15%

1.38%

3.00%

3.09%

6.68%

3.47%

4.77%

5.33%

6.29%

6.76%

6.78%

7.66%

7.38%

7.55%

3.16%

(Austin FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1450
Next: v MIN (02/21) , v DCU (03/01) , @ CLT (03/07)

ATX

102

—

57.39%

1.66%

2.52%

3.05%

6.14%

3.69%

4.54%

5.09%

5.89%

5.82%

6.43%

7.62%

7.43%

7.57%

3.31%

(Houston Dynamo FC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1445
Next: v CHI (02/21) , v LAF (02/28) , @ N.E (03/07)

HOU

102

—

57.91%

1.49%

2.94%

3.15%

5.85%

3.62%

4.83%

5.27%

6.02%

6.46%

6.77%

6.63%

7.37%

7.16%

3.78%

(Real Salt Lake) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1430
Next: @ VCR (02/21) , v SEA (02/28) , @ ATL (03/07)

RSL

102

—

53.48%

1.33%

2.54%

3.01%

5.63%

2.89%

3.94%

4.56%

5.00%

5.77%

6.00%

6.65%

7.07%

7.58%

4.02%

(San Jose Earthquakes) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1410
Next: v SKC (02/21) , v ATL (02/28) , @ PHI (03/07)

S.J

102

—

51.91%

1.06%

2.36%

2.77%

5.57%

2.44%

3.23%

4.53%

4.82%

5.20%

6.07%

6.46%

7.36%

7.08%

4.72%

(Colorado Rapids) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1400
Next: @ SEA (02/22) , v POR (02/28) , v LAG (03/07)

COL

102

—

51.40%

0.73%

2.63%

2.86%

5.29%

2.14%

3.45%

4.07%

4.64%

4.96%

5.69%

6.30%

7.18%

7.42%

5.55%

(St. Louis City SC) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1385
Next: v CLT (02/21) , @ S.D (03/01) , v SEA (03/07)

STL

102

—

50.13%

0.85%

2.39%

2.60%

4.85%

2.03%

2.86%

4.27%

4.57%

5.36%

5.75%

5.87%

6.40%

7.43%

5.59%

(Sporting Kansas City) 0W 0D 0L +0GD ELO: 1310
Next: @ S.J (02/21) , v CLB (02/28) , v S.D (03/07)

SKC

102

—

40.21%

0.26%

1.59%

1.66%

3.43%

0.79%

1.27%

1.82%

2.63%

2.82%

3.51%

4.23%

5.19%

6.04%

11.91%

Number of sims: 10000
Supporter's Shield winner average points: 77.61
Wooden Spoon average points: 16.75
East winner average points: 74.24
West winner average points: 74.07
East 4th place average points: 59.03
West 4th place average points: 58.78
East average points to make playoffs: 43.60
West average points to make playoffs: 43.31